ABS1

 

1. Simonton, D. K. (1974). The social psychology of creativity: An archival data analysis. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Harvard University.

2. Simonton, D. K. (1975a). Age and literary creativity: A cross-cultural and transhistorical survey. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 6, 259-277.
Research on the relation between age and creative achievement could be improved by using (a) cross-cultural and transhistorical data and (b) multivariate rather than bivariate analyses. A sample of 420 literary creators was drawn from histories, anthologies, and biographical dictionaries of Western, Near Eastern, and Far Eastern literatures. The modal productive age was then regressed on field and civilization categorical variables, longevity, time, and eminence control variables, and a number of interaction terms. Results confirmed that (a) poetry is produced at a younger age than prose (but failed to find any age difference between informative and imaginative prose), (b) achieved eminence and life span are positive determinants of the modal productive age, and (c) these relationships are cross-culturally and transhistorically invariant.

3. Simonton, D. K. (1975b). Creativity, task complexity, and intuitive versus analytical problem solving. Psychological Reports, 37, 351-354.
Using 40 Ss the relative effectiveness of intuitive and analytical problem solving was determined as a function of creativity and task complexity. A three-way analysis of variance yielded a significant three-way interaction between thinking mode (intuition or analysis), task complexity, and creativity (as measured by the Baron-Welsh Art Scale). More creative Ss found intuition more effective for a complex task, analysis on the simple task; this relation was reversed for the less creative Ss.

4. Simonton, D. K. (1975c). Galton’s problem, autocorrelation, and diffusion coefficients. Behavior Science Research, 10, 239-248.
The linked pair solution to Galton’s problem is examined from the perspective of the autocorrelation problem in economics. The estimated degrees of freedom, but not the correlations, are shown to be inflated due to diffusional and historical associations. An alternative form of the linked pair method is derived from the Orcutt-James solution to the autocorrelation problem. This technique permits unrestricted sampling of societies along a diffusion or geographic arc, and then provides a formula for calculating the effective number of nonredundant cases for statistical tests. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed.

5. Simonton, D. K. (1975d). Interdisciplinary creativity over historical time: A correlational analysis of generational fluctuations. Social Behavior and Personality, 3, 181-188.
The interdisciplinary relationships among 15 kinds of creative achievement were examined over 130 generations of European history (controlling for linear, quadratic, and cubic time trends). A P-technique factor analysis located three major interdisciplinary clusters: (a) discursive (science, philosophy, literature, and music), (b) presentational (painting, sculpture, and architecture), and (c) rationalism-mysticism (physical science and general philosophy vs religion and painting). A cross-lagged correlation analysis indicated that minor discursive creators tended to inhibit the development of minor presentational creators in the next generation. Personological, interpersonal, and sociocultural explanations for the findings are discussed.

6. Simonton, D. K. (1975e). Invention and discovery among the sciences: A p-technique factor analysis. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 7, 275-281.
This paper explors how discoveries and inventions in nine scientific disciplines cluster over time in Western culture. The transhistorical sample consisted of 12,761 major scientific contributions tabulated into 44 time-units (full, half, and quarter centuries) extending from 800 B.C. to 1900 A.D. A factor analysis was executed on the correlations among the nine measures after partialing out 3rd-order polynomial time trends. Three orthogonal factors appeared: concrete (chemistry, physics, and biology), abstract (astronomy and mathematics), and applied (technology, geography, and geology) clusters. Medicine loaded moderately on the concrete and abstract clusters. Three types of explanations are discussed – personological, interpersonal, and sociocultural – with suggestions for how they might be tested.

7. Simonton, D. K. (1975f). Sociocultural context of individual creativity: A transhistorical time-series analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 1119-1133.
Hypotheses hypotheses were stated which specify individual creativity as a function of developmental and productive period variables. It was argued that these hypotheses could be better tested by examining generational fluctuations in creativity. Information from cultural and political archival sources was thus aggregated to form time series spanning 127 generations of European history. Data quality checks, control variables, data transformations, time-lagged comparisons, and trend analyses were used to improve the validity of the causal inferences. While the results varied according to the type of creativity (discursive or presentational) and the degree of achieved eminence, creative development was found to be affected by (a) role model availability, (b) political fragmentation, (c) imperial instability, and (d) political instability.

8. Simonton, D. K. (1976a). Biographical determinants of achieved eminence: A multivariate approach to the Cox data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 33, 218-226.
Ranked eminence of creators and leaders was hypothesized to be a function of both substantive (developmental and productive) variables and methodological artifacts. Results indicate that ranked eminence is (a) a curvilinear inverted-U function of education for creators but a negative linear function for leaders, (b) a positive linear functions of versatility for leaders only, and (c) a curvilinear U-shaped function of life span for creators but a “backwards-J” function for leaders. Although creators were more intelligent than leaders, the correlation that Cox found between intelligence and ranked eminence was shown to be an artifact of data reliability and especially, a time-wise sampling bias. It was also shown that father’s status had no direct impact on ranked eminence.

9. Simonton, D. K. (1976b). The causal relation between war and scientific discovery: An exploratory cross-national analysis. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 7, 133-144.
Using cross-lagged correlation analyses as the basis for causal inferece, the relationship between war and scientific discovery and invention was explored in seven European nations. Measures of war duration and scientific productivity were generated using 14 or 16 quarter-century periods, or “generations,” as the unit of analysis within each nation. The analyses indicated significant associations for England and Russia (war encouraging science in the next generation), Spain (war discouraging science in the next generation), Holland (science discouraging war in the next generation), and France (war and science correlating positively in the same generation), whereas Germany and Italy exhibited no significant relationships. Discussion of the causal inconsistencies led to the suggestion that future research separately analyze different scientific disciplines and their respective relations to various categories of war.

10. Simonton, D. K. (1976c). Do Sorokin’s data support his theory?: A study of generational fluctuations in philosophical beliefs. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 15, 187-198.
The question was raised regarding the empirical support for Sorokin’s cyclical theory of philosophical, religious, and scientific movements. Transhistorical measures of creativity and philosophical beliefs were used which spanned 122 generations (or 20-year periods) from 540 B.C. to 1900 A.D. in Western history. An analysis of non-transformed and first-differenced data indicated that (a) philosophical beliefs form two positively correlated Sensate and Ideational clusters, (b) Sensate times are associated with scientific creativity and Ideational times with religious activity, and (c) these relationships hold solely for immediate generational fluctuations since the time-wise trends for Sensate and Ideational systems are the same. An alternative explanation was proposed which may better fit the data but which casts doubt on Sorokin’s forecast of a new Ideational age of religious activity.

11. Simonton, D. K. (1976d). Ideological diversity and creativity: A re-evaluation of a hypothesis. SocialBehavior and Personality, 4, 203-207.
Using political fragmentation and imperial instability as indicators, an earlier study attempted to show that cultural diversity has a positive influence on personal creative development. This paper re-examines that hypothesis by first introducing ideological diversity as a more direct indicator and then testing for relationships using cross-lagged correlation analysis. With data extending over 122 generations (20-year periods) of Western history, it was found that: (1) political fragmentation,  imperial instability, and ideological diversity all correlate with creativity, but the first indicator has no contemporaneous relationship with the last two; (2) none of the cross-lagged correlations between the three cultural diversity indicators and creativity were statistically significant, and hence they may not be developmental influences; and (3) political fragmentation has a significant impact on the emergence of ideological diversity in the next generation. The inference is that the original hypothesis is probably oversimplified.

12. Simonton, D. K. (1976e). Interdisciplinary and military determinants of scientific productivity: A cross-lagged correlation analysis. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 9, 53-62.
This paper explores the contemporaneous and intergenerational relationships among various scientific endeavors and military activity. Using European historical data from 1500 to 1900 A.D., generational (or  25-year) fluctuations were examined for nine categories of scientific discovery and invention and for two aspects of military activity. A  cross-lagged correlational analysis indicated that (a) casualties (but not war duration) has a significant negative contemporaneous association with medical discoveries, (b) several scientific disciplines display positive intergenerational influences (e.g., medicine, geology, and chemistry on biology), and (c) astronomy  exhibits a negative intergenerational impact on technology, medicine, biology, and geology. Findings are discussed in terms of both stimulating interdisciplinary information exchanges and inhibitory competitive recruitment.

13. Simonton, D. K. (1976f). Philosophical eminence, beliefs, and zeitgeist: An individual-generational analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34, 630-640.
Twelve hypotheses were proposed that specify the eminence of thinkers to be a function of belief structure, zeitgeist relationships, and  sociocultural and political variables. An archival research design was introduced that simultaneously tests individual and generational factors. The sample consisted of 2,012 thinkers from Occidental civilization spanning 124 generations from 580 B.C. to 1900 A.D. The dependent variable was derived from a factor analysis of 10 distinct measures. A multiple-regression analysis indicated that philosophical eminence is a function of (a) breadth, extremism, and consistency of belief structure; (b) zeitgeist representativeness, precursiveness, and modernity; (c) role model availability (but not ideological diversity); (d) political fragmentation and political instability (but neither imperial instability nor war intensity); and (e) historical proximity to the present. Implications of the results and design for further research are briefly discussed.

14. Simonton, D. K. (1976g). The sociopolitical context of philosophical beliefs: A transhistorical causal analysis. Social Forces, 54, 513-523.
This paper applies a quasi-experimental design to the problem of the causal relation between intellectual and political movements. A sample of 122 consecutive “generations” (or 20-year periods) was drawn from European history (540 B.C. to 1900 A.D.). A cross-lagged correlation analysis indicated the following intergenerational influences: (1) political fragmentation has a positive impact on the emergence of empiricism, skepticism-criticism-fideism, materialism, temporalism, nominalism, singularism, and the ethics of happiness; (2) war has a negative impact on the appearance of most of these just mentioned beliefs; (3) skepticism-criticism-fideism and perhaps materialism have a positive influence on the appearance of war; and (4) civil disturbances tend to polarize beliefs on all major philosophical issues.

15. Simonton, D. K. (1977a). Creative productivity, age, and stress: A biographical time-series analysis of 10 classical composers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 791-804.
The determinants of creative productivity were specified in the form of six hypotheses. Using a multivariate, cross-sectional, time-series design with several controls, the lives and works of 10 classical composers were analyzed into consecutive 5-year periods. Two independent measures of productivity were operationalized (works and themes), with each measure subdivided into major and minor compositions according to a citation criterion. It was consistently found across both productivity measures that (a) quality of productivity was a probabilistic consequence of productive quantity and (b) total productivity, while affected by age and physical illness, was otherwise free of external influences (viz, social reinforcement, biographical stress, war intensity, and internal disturbances). Due to the more selective nature of the thematic productivity measure, the criterion of total themes alone was affected by competition and a time-wise bias. The article closes with a brief discussion of the broad subtantive utility of the methodological design.

16. Simonton, D. K. (1977b). Cross-sectional time-series experiments: Some suggested statistical analyses. Psychological Bulletin, 84, 489-502.
In the past, statistical analyses for time-series experiments have usually operated with a single-case model, thereby limiting the general applicability of the designs. In this article, alternative analytical procedures are developed for cross-sectional time-series in which the sample size is large and the number of observations per case is relatively small. Interrupted time series, equivalent time samples, and multiple time series are all treated within a multiple regression framework. A generalized least squares estimation procedure is outlined as a more suitable alternative to the Box and Jenkins approach. Some of the special advantages of the designs are briefly discussed.

17. Simonton, D. K. (1977c). Eminence, creativity, and geographic marginality: A recursive structural equation model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 805-816.
A recursive structural equation model that specifies the individual and generational causes – both direct and indirect – of achieved eminence was hypothesized. Although the model can be applied to any creative discipline, it was specifically tested on 696 of the most famous composers in Western classical music. The detection of several significant specification errors in the postulated model necessitated its respecification until a final model emerged. The resulting seven-equation model describes the complex causal network interrelating eminence, creative productivity, creative longevity, life span, creative precociousness, geographic marginality, role-model availability, and birth year. Although the structural model awaits further confirmation on samples of famous creators in other disciplines, the present model is seen as exemplifying a general procedure of causal analysis just recently introduced into personality and social psychology.

18. Simonton, D. K. (1977d). Women’s fashions and war: A quantitative comment. Social Behavior and Personality, 5, 285-288.
Previous research has suggested that the fashion changes in women’s dress may be influenced by contemporary political context. This suggestion was tested for European women from 1797 to 1936. International war was found to induce women to wear the short “Empire” mode, whereas international peace was found to encourage the long “Hour Glass” mode. By comparison, intranational war apparently nurtures the short Hour Glass mode, while intranational peace favors the long Empire mode. Contrary to the conclusions of prior research, the fashion behavior of women does not become more unstable during political conflicts.

19. Simonton, D. K. (1978a). The eminent genius in history: The critical role of creative development. Gifted Child Quarterly, 22, 187-195.
Why do creative geniuses appear in some periods of history but not in others? A review of recent research suggests that various external factors – including formal education, role-model availability, zeitgeist, political fragmentation, war, civil disturbances, and political instability – have a critical impact on the development of creative potential in the young genius. Once that potential is established, however, and the genius enters adulthood, creative productivity tends to proceed with little interference from outside events.

20. Simonton, D. K. (1978b). Erratum to Simonton. Psychological Bulletin, 85, 1000.
Reports an error in the original article by D. K. Simonton (Psychological Bulletin, 1977 [May], Vol No. 84, 489-502). There is an error on page 497. Contrary to the author’s statement, each and every independent variable (namely, the dummy, time, and product terms) should be transformed in the same manner as the dependent variable, using Equation 4.

21. Simonton, D. K. (1978c). Independent discovery in science and technology: A closer look at the Poisson distribution. Social Studies of Science, 8, 521-532.
Social determinists have argued that the occurrence of independent discoveries and inventions demonstrates the inevitability of techno-scientific progress. Yet the frequence of such multiples may be adequately predicted by a probabilistic model, especially the Poisson model suggested by Price. A detailed inquiry reveals that the Poisson distribution can predict almost all of the observed variation in the frequency distribution of multiples collected by Merton, and by Ogburn and Thomas. This study further indicates that: (a) the number of observed multiples may be greatly underestimated, particularly those involving few independent contributors; (b) discoveries and inventions are not sufficiently probable to avoid a large proportion of total failures, and hence techno-scientific advance is to a large measure indeterminate; (c) chance or ‘luck’ seems to play such a major part that the ‘great genius’ theory is no more tenable than the social deterministic theory.

22. Simonton, D. K. (1978d). Intergenerational stimulation, reaction, and polarization: A causal analysis of intellectual history. Social Behavior and Personality, 6, 247-251.
Some of Sorokin’s conclusions regarding ideological creativity were appraised by applying a cross-lagged correlation analysis to his generational measures of 7 intellectual issues and 18 beliefs. These measures extended from 540 B.C. to 1900 A.D. but were confined to European philosophers. Results indicate the operation of intergenerational stimulation, reaction, and polarization in the history of ideas. But Sorokin’s specific qualitative inductions were only partly substantiated. In particular, there was no evidence that the rise of one idea can cause the decline of another idea in the following generation.

23. Simonton, D. K. (1978e). Time-series analysis of literary creativity: A potential paradigm. Poetics, 7, 249-259.
Many key questions concerning literary creativity may be answered using time-series analysis. The two most useful types of time series are (a) biographical time series consisting of consecutive observations of the lives of eminent writers and (b) transhistorical time series consisting of consecutive observations of the progression of literary traditions. Either time series may be subjected to correlation analyses (bivariate correlation, autocorrelation, and p-type factor analysis), quasi-experimental analyses (interrupted time series and cross-lagged correlation technique), and multiple regression analyses (generational time series, individual-generational analysis, and cross-sectional time series). Past research on creativity is cited to illustrate the scope of the substantive issues which can be addressed using time series designs.

24. Simonton, D. K. (1979a). Multiple discovery and invention: Zeitgeist, genius, or chance? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 1603-1616.
The occurrence of independent contributions by two or more scientists can be interpreted in terms of zeitgeist, genius, or chance. The relative adequacy of these three theories was examined by hypothesizing four critical empirical tests. These tests focus on (a) the general and intradisciplinary probability distribution of multiples and (b) the relationship of individual eminence with multiple production and priority. An analysis of 579 multiples and of 789 scientists and inventors gave the most support to the chance theory, followed by the zeitgeist theory. Results are integrated into a single probabilistic perspective that incorporates some of the major features of all three theories.

25. Simonton, D. K. (1979b). The notion of independent simultaneous invention or discovery. Social Studies of Science, 9, 509-510.

26. Simonton, D. K. (1979c). Reply to Algina and Swaminathan. Psychological Bulletin, 86, 927-928.
Algina and Swaminathan have proposed more sophisticated analyses for the cross-sectional time-series experiment. Especially valuable is their suggested procedure for testing the empirical adequacy of the hypothesized intervention model. Nonetheless, the greater complexity of their approach may not always be justified in many research applications. In particular, their exact-test method will normally yield statistical inferences similar to those of my approximate-test procedure.

27. Simonton, D. K. (1979d). Was Napoleon a military genius? Score: Carlyle 1, Tolstoy 1. Psychological Reports, 44, 21-22.
Carlyle’s “Great Man” theory and Tolstoy’s “Zeitgeist” theory provide two alternative explanations of historical events. Yet a quantitative study of the military career of Napoleon and his contemporaries demonstrates that both views account for a significant percentage of the variance in military success during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars.

28. Simonton, D. K. (1980a). Intuition and analysis: A predictive and explanatory model. Genetic Psychology Monographs, 102, 3-60.
The present paper develops a model of intuitive processes. The model assumes that (a) behavior and thought can be viewed partly in terms of conditional probabilistic associations; (b) the four probability thresholds of attention, behavior, cognition, and habituation prescribe the psychological consequences of any given association (e.g., whether it will be nonconscious, infraconscious, conscious, or ultraconscious, respectively); (c) the overall probability distribution of associations provides the basis for a two-dimensional personality typology; and (d) arousal level has important relationships with both this typology and the four probability thresholds. A number of empirical propositions are derived which focus on verbal conditioning, concept formation, and problem solving. The explanatory value of the model is discussed with respect to selected issues in aesthetics, attitude change, and social judgment.

29. Simonton, D. K. (1980b). Land battles, generals, and armies: Individual and situational determinants of victory and casualties. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 110-119.
Military success on the battlefield was hypothesized to be a function of both individual and situational factors. Potential individual determinants included age (linear and curvilinear), experience (battles and years), competence (winning streaks and cumulative victories), and willingness to take the offensive. Possible situational determinants included army size, home defense, divided command, and soldier heterogeneity. Military success was gauged according to either a tactical victory or a battle casualty edge (or superior “kill ratio”). A discriminant analysis of 326 land battles indicated that the victor could be identified 71% of the time, given the predictors of years of experience, winning streaks, willingness to take the offensive, and divided command. A regression analysis of 205 land battles found that 18% of the variance in battle casualty edge could be explained if cumulative victory, army size, divided command, and date were known. Individual determinants were more important for predicting victory, whereas situational determinants were more crucial for predicting an edge in battle casualties. No Individual X Situation interaction effects were found.

30. Simonton, D. K. (1980c). Techno-scientific activity and war: A yearly time-series analysis, 1500-1903 A.D. Scientometrics, 2, 251-255.
Previous research may have failed to find a general relationship between war and techno-scientific activity due to the failure (a) to treat the various types of war separately and (b) to use yearly rather than generational time series. Hence, the present study examined 404 consecutive years in European civilization from 1500 to 1903. Measures of four distinct kinds of war were defined and a log-transformed measure of techno-scientific activity was derived from a factor analysis of six histories and chronologies. The techno-scientific measure was regressed on the war measures plus a set of control variables. Techno-scientific activity was found to be a negative function of balance-of-power and defensive wars fought within Europe. In contrast, imperial and civil wars exerted no influence.

31. Simonton, D. K. (1980d). Thematic fame and melodic originality in classical music: A multivariate computer-content analysis. Journal of Personality, 48, 206-219.
In order to understand the foundation of eminence in cultural activities, an attempt was made at learning why some works creators produce are more famous than others. This paper specifically investigates the differential fame of 5,046 themes by 10 eminent composers of classical music. Hypotheses derived from past research in creativity and esthetics were tested using a computerized content analysis. Results show that (a) the fame of a musical theme is a positive linear function of melodic originality (rather than a curvilinear inverted-U function) and (b) melodic originality is a positive function of biographical stress and of historical time, and an inverted backwards-J function of age.

32. Simonton, D. K. (1980e). Thematic fame, melodic originality, and musical zeitgeist: A biographical and transhistorical content analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 972-983.
The fame of a musical theme was hypothesized to be a function of melodic originality and the composer’s concurrent creative productivity. Melodic originality, in turn, was hypothesized to be a function of historical time and the composer’s age. A citation measure was used to define the fame of 15,618 themes from the classical repertoire. A computerized content analysis of two-note transition possibilities was used to operationalize melodic originality relative to both the entire repertoire and the zeitgeist at time of composition. Methodological variables were also defined to control for form, medium, work size, competition, and the composer’s lifetime productivity. A multiple regression analysis showed that thematic fame is an inverted-J function of repertoire melodic originality, a J-function of zeitgeist melodic originality, and a positive function of creative productivity. Repertoire melodic originality is a positive function of historical time and an inverted backwards- J function of the composer’s age, whereas zeitgeist melodic originality is a positive linear function of the composer’s age. The research design was also shown to be especially suited for studying a creative product within the total aethetic, personological, developmental, and sociocultural context.

33. Simonton, D. K. (1981a). Creativity in Western civilization: Extrinsic and intrinsic causes. American Anthropologist, 83, 628-630.
Comments on the defense of the external validity of laboratory experiments by Berkowitz and Donnerstein, arguing that they overlook the fact that lab experiments are not adept at demonstrating exclusive one-way causality when two-way causality is a distinct possibility in real-world settings.

34. Simonton, D. K. (1981b). Presidential greatness and performance: Can we predict leadership in the White House? Journal of Personality, 49, 306-323.
Two related questions regarding presidential leadership are addressed. First, what are the principal determimants of the rated greatness of American presidents? Second, can presidential performance be predicted using preelection biographical variables? Reliable measures of greatness and performance were operationalized for the 38 Presidents of the United States, along with numerous potential predictors suggested by past literature on leadership, achieved eminence, and presidential popularity and greatness. About 75% of the variance in Presidential greatness can be predicted using administration duration, number of war years, unsuccessful assassination attempts, scandals, and prepresidential publication record. Family background, personal characteristics, education, occupation, and political experiences provided few if any predictors of Presidential performance, although succession to office through the vice-presidency exerted a rather general negative effect.

35. Simonton, D. K. (1981c). The library laboratory: Archival data in personality and social psychology. In L. Wheeler (Ed.), Review of personality and social psychology (vol. 2, pp. 217-243), Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.

36. Simonton, D. K. (1981d). Totalitarian ego: Analogy or identity? American Psychologist, 36, 689.
Comments that the analogy used by Greenwald may be a disguised identity, as when an entity is inadvertently made into an analogy with itself in a hidden form of circular reasoning.

37. Simonton, D. K. (1982). One-way experimentation does not prove one-way causation. American Psychologist, 37, 1404-1406.
Comments on the defense of the external validity of laboratory experiments by Berkowitz and Donnerstein , arguing that they overlook the fact that lab experiments are not adept at demonstrating exclusive one-way causality when two-way causality is a distinct possibility in real-world settings.

38. Simonton, D. K. (1983a). Dramatic greatness and content: A quantitative study of Eighty-One Athenian and Shakespearean plays. Empirical Studies of the Arts, 1, 109-123.
Three hypotheses specified the possible direct and indirect determinants of a play’s greatness and issue content. The sample consisted of eighty-one plays by Aeschylus, Sophocles, Euripedes, Aristophanes, and Shakespeare. Each play’s dramatic greatness was operationalized using a citation measure. The Great Books Syntopicon was used to define nineteen issue content domains and general issue richness. Multiple regression analyses indicated that 1) dramatic greatness is a positive function of line quotability, which in turn is a positive function of issue richness, and 2) the particular issue or themes addressed in a play are affected both by the playwright’s personal age and by the presence of civil unrest at the time of composition.

39. Simonton, D. K. (1983b). Esthetics, biography, and history in musical creativity. In Documentary report of the Ann Arbor Symposium (Session 3, pp. 41-48). Reston, VA: Music Educators National Conference.

40. Simonton, D. K. (1983c). Formal education, eminence, and dogmatism: The curvilinear relationship. Journal of Creative Behavior, 17, 149-162. [Abstract in Resources in Education, 1981, 16, 89.]
The relationship between formal education and creativity was investigated in two studies. A reanalysis of Cox’s (1926) 301 geniuses indicated that achieved eminence of creators is a curvilinear inverted-U function of formal education. Secondly, a study of 33 American presidents found that dogmatism (i.e., idealistic inflexibility) is a curvilinear U-shaped function of formal education. Since creativity and dogmatism are negatively associated, and may represent opposite points on a single bipolar personality dimension, these findings imply that the optimal amount of formal education for maximal creative potential is a college experience that falls just short of attaining the baccalaureate degree.

41. Simonton, D. K. (1983d). Intergenerational transfer of individual differences in hereditary monarchs: Genetic, role-modeling, cohort, or sociocultural effects? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44, 354-364.
Individual differences may be transferred across generations through either genetic inheritance, identification with role models, cohort effects, or sociocultural influences. Each of these four possible mechanisms makes different predictions regarding what traits display intergenerational continuities, the pattern of relationships between an individual and his or her relatives, as well as the relative impact of same-sex and cross-sex relationships. A sample of 342 hereditary monarchs were drawn from 14 European nations. These rulers, along with their parents, grandparents, and predecessors, were then assessed on the variables of intelligence, morality, eminence, leadership, life span, and reign span. Theoretically significant interaction effects were also operationalized, using such moderator variables as genetic relationship, years of overlap in lives, age difference, difference in reign midpoints, and sex. The intergenerational transfer of intelligence and life span was best explained by genetics, whereas the transfer of morality and eminence was governed by role-modeling processes. The remaining variables were either transferred by more complex mechanisms (viz. leadership) or not transferred at all from one generation to the next (viz. reign span). Results contradict both Woods’s (1906) belief that morality is genetically inherited and Galton’s (1869) argument that eminence can serve as a nearly equivalent proxy variable for intellectual genius.

42. Simonton, D. K. (1983e). Psychohistory. In R. Harré & R. Lamb (Eds.), The encyclopedic dictionary of psychology (pp. 499-500). Oxford: Blackwell.

43. Simonton, D. K. (1984a). Artistic creativity and interpersonal relationships across and within generations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 1273-1286.
A successful “social psychology of creativity” demands that the creative individual be placed within a network of interpersonal relationships and group influences. Toward this end, 772 artists were assessed for achieved eminence, and their relationships with other artists were gauged in terms of both quantity and quality. These social relationships could concern predecessors (paragons, masters, and parents), contemporaries (rivals, collaborators, associates, friends, copupils, and siblings), and successors (apprentices and admirers). Aggregate measures of group artistic activity (zeitgeist) were also defined for both contemporary and preceding generations. Five relationships – paragons, rivals, associates, apprentices, and admirers – emerged as the most consistent correlates of artistic eminence, though the aggregate measures provided useful predictors over and above the individual-level effects. The impact of the various interpersonal relationships was often moderated by the mean age difference between the artist and the fellow artists entering a given social interaction. For example, artistic eminence is a curvilinear inverted backward J function of the mean artist-paragon age gap, in which the optimum point varies as a negative monotonic function of the number of paragons emulated.

44. Simonton, D. K. (1984b). Creative productivity and age: A mathematical model based on a two-step cognitive process. Developmental Review, 4, 77-111.
It is argued that several empirical aspects of the relation between age and productivity can be explained by hypothesizing a simple two-step model of the creative process. Such a hypothesis permits a delayed single-peak function to result from an underlying process of constantly decelerating decay. The derived equation describes creative productivity as a function of individual age. The equation is not only shown to be consistent with empirical data on the relation between age and achievement, but several important empirical predictions and theoretical consequences are also inferred from the model. For instance, the model (a) maintains that the age curves may be largely the intrinsic outcome of cognitive processes rather than the extrinsic effect of developmental changes or sociological influences; (b) predicts the explanatory superiority of professional over chronological age; (c) explains the observed positive intercorrelation among creative precociousness, productivity, and longevity in terms of their mutual dependence on individual differences in creative potential; and (d) provides a substantive basis for interpreting the variation in age peaks across disciplines by introducing the concepts of ideation rate, elaboration rate, and creative half-life. Tests to confirm or disconfirm the model are also proposed
.

45. Simonton, D. K. (1984c). Creativity and leadership: Causal convergence and divergence. In S. S. Gryskienicz, J. T. Shields, & S. J. Sensabaugh (Eds.), Blueprint for innovation: Creativity Week VI, 1983 (pp. 187-202). Greensboro, NC: Center for Creative Leadership.

46. Simonton, D. K. (1984d). Generational time-series analysis: A paradigm for studying sociocultural influences. In K. Gergen & M. Gergen (Eds.), Historical social psychology (pp. 141-155). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.

47. Simonton, D. K. (1984e). Genius, creativity, and leadership: Historiometric inquiries. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Dean Keith Simonton examines uncommon people; those creators and leaders whose impact on their own and later times has been so great that they deserve the label “genius” [from jacket].

48. Simonton, D. K. (1984f). Is the marginality effect all that marginal? Social Studies of Science, 14, 621-622.

49. Simonton, D. K. (1984g). Leader age and national condition: A longitudinal analysis of 25 European monarchs. Social Behavior and Personality, 12, 111-114.
In order to determine the relationship between age and achievement in the politico-military domain, the reigns of 25 long-tenured European absolute monarchs (those who reigned between the Middle Ages and the Napoleonic era) were analyzed as cross-sectional time series of 238 5-year age periods. Both linear and curvilinear age functions were defined along with variables to control for individual differences, linear time trends, and other potential artifacts. A partial correlation analysis indicated that leader age tended to be negatively correlated with military success in foreign wars and with treaty negotiation and positively correlated with civil instability at home, whether in the royal family or in the populace. Moreover, some indicators of military and diplomatic success were curvilinear inverted U-functions of leader age, with the peak occurring approximately in the leader’s 42nd year.

50. Simonton, D. K. (1984h). Leaders as eponyms: Individual and situational determinants of monarchal eminence. Journal of Personality, 52, 1-21.
The eponymic theory of leadership maintaints that the eminence of rulers depends on their utility as historical labels without regard to their personal attributes. The explanatory scope of this interpretation was tested, for methodological reasons, on a sample of 342 European hereditary monarchs. In support of eponymic theory: (a) about two-thirds of variance in leader eminence could be ascribed to the number of significant events occurring during the leader’s tenure in office; (b) events with positive and negative social valence carried approximately equal positive weight; (c) events over which the leader exerts considerable control have about the same weight as those over which personal control is virtually nonexistent; and (d) the effects of epochcentric bias and reign span are mediated by the number of significant events. But qualifying eponymic theory: (a) eminence was not determined solely by the event tabulation (e.g., leader fame is a J-curve function of intelligence and a U-curve function of morality); (b) the number of events was not accounted for by reign span; and (c) reign span was not solely a function of life span (e.g., reign span is a positive linear function of assessed leadership). The results endorse a form of the theory in which provision is made for intellectual and personality factors.

51. Simonton, D. K. (1984i). Melodic structure and note transition probabilities: A content analysis of 15,618 classical themes. Psychology of Music, 12, 3-16.
A content analytical scheme is described that can assess aspects of melodic structure in large samples of themes.  This objective, computerized system was applied  to 15,618 themes drawn from the classical repertoire. Tables result that give the probabilities of two- and three-note transitions, and, in the former case, the probabilities are presented both presented transition-by-transition and averaged across all transitions. Despite the simplicity of the coding system, it has been shown in past research to be powerful enough to distinguish the musical style of a composer and to yield a measure of melodic originality that relates in significant ways to other aesthetic, biographical, and historical variables. To illustrate this utility, the table of two-note transition probabilities is employed both to gauge the melodic originality of a sample set of composed themes and to generate contrived themes with known originality scores for use in laboratory experiments on musical aesthetics.

52. Simonton, D. K. (1984j). Huiyi Pulaisi. [Remembering Price]. Kexue Xue Yu Kezue Jishu Guanli [Science Studies and Management of Science and Technology], 9, 7-8.

53. Simonton, D. K. (1984k). Scientific eminence historical and contemporary: A measurement assessment. Scientometrics, 6, 169-182.
In some studies of scientific creativity it has proved useful to assess the differential eminence of scientists according to their presence in the historical record (as registered by scholarly works). To determine the research utility of such indicators, a sample of 2026 scientists spanning several centuries and nationalities was taken from three biographical dictionaries of science. The eminence of each scientist was gauged 23 distinct ways using a diversity of reference works (e.g., histories, biographical dictionaries, encyclopedias, etc.) and variable operationalizations (e.g., space measures, ratings, rankings, etc.). Despite minor discrepancies due mainly to the degree of timewise bias and reference work type, a factor analysis demonstrated the existence of a pervasive consensus. A linear composite of these measures had an alpha reliability of 0.78. Further, it was shown that (a) the reliability of assessed eminence somewhat declines as it is applied to more recently born scientists, (b) the reliability remains high within separate disciplines and nationalities, and (c) assessed eminence, once complex time trends are controlled, correlates positively with the more commonly used citation counts, especially the number of cited publications. Hence, archival indicators of scientific eminence are both reliable and consistent with other scientometric procedures.

54. Simonton, D. K. (1984l). Shakespeare színdarabjai és szonettjei: A differenciális népszerüség meghatározói [Shakespeare’s plays and sonnets: Correlates of differential greatness]. Pszichológia, 4, 459-467.

55. Simonton, D. K. (1984m). The nourishing mentor. Occidental, 8, 20-23.
Creative individuals provide role models and even personal mentors, paragons that establish the basis for the next step in the progress of human civilization.

56. Simonton, D. K. (1985a). Genius, creativity and leadership. IEEE Potentials, 4, 31-32.

57. Simonton, D. K. (1985b). Individual creativity and political leadership. In R. L. Merritt & A. J. Merritt (Eds.), Innovation in the public sector (pp. 39-62). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.

58. Simonton, D. K. (1985c). Intelligence and personal influence in groups: Four nonlinear models. Psychological Review, 92, 532-547.
Four models are progressively developed that provide a conceptual basis for a curvilinear relation between intelligence and an individual’s influence over other group members. Model 1, by assuming that influence is a function of percentile placement in intelligence, predicts that beyond an IQ of about 120 intelligence bears a negligible connection with influence. Model 2 adds the consideration of the degree of comprehension by potential followers, yielding a nonmonotonic function with a predicted peak IQ of about 108 (or a 0.5 SD above the mean). Model 3 incorporates the criticism factor that acknowledges a group member’s vulnerability to intellectual superiors, and thereby predicts a second nonmonotonic function with an optimal IQ of about 119 (or 1.2 SD above the mean). Model 4 expands on the fact that the mean group IQ varies across different groups and, consequently, predicts a high correlation between the group mean IQ and the IQ of its most influential member, with a leader-follower gap of between 8 and 20 points (depending on the submodel).

59. Simonton, D. K. (1985d). Quality, quantity, and age: The careers of 10 distinguished psychologists. International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 21, 241-254.
The longitudinal relationship between quality and  quantity of productive output is examined over the careers of ten recipients of the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award.  Four alternative models of this relationship – expertise-acquisition, youthful-enthusiasm, peak-age, and  constant-probability-of-success – yield distinctive predictions regarding 1) how the ratio of major contributions to total output  changes as a career advances and 2) the developmental association  between major and minor works over consecutive time periods. The quality of a publication was assessed by the citations it earned  in the professional literature. The results endorse the  constant-probability-of-success model (both across and within careers). Not only does confirmation of this model provide support for Campbell’s blind-variation-and-selective-retention theory of  creative thought, but it additionally has important implications for understanding  the role of age and chance in the careers of successful psychologists.

60. Simonton, D. K. (1985e). The vice-presidential succession effect: Individual or situational basis? Political Behavior, 7, 79-99.
Simonton (1981) found that “accidental presidents do not perform as well as duly elected chief executives. Though this vice-presidential succession effect might be due to individual factors, such as some deficiency in personality or political experience, it might be due instead to situational factors, most notably  the failure to be perceived as having legitimate power by those already in power positions. Three studies investigated the relative plausibility of individual and situational explanations. Study 1 examined 49 president-vice-president teams to determine the criteria by which running mates are selected. Study 2 looked at 69 leaders who served as either president, vice-president, or both, in order to discover if accidental presidents can be differentiated on biographical and political background variables. Study 3 scrutinized 100 congressional units in a time-series design to gauge the impact of  serving an unelected term as president. Results support a situational interpretation based on the attribution of legitimate power.

61. Simonton, D. K. (1986a). Aesthetic success in classical music: A computer analysis of 1935 compositions. Empirical Studies of the Arts, 4, 1-17.
To further elucidate the basis of aesthetic success in classical music, data on 8,992 themes were aggregated into 1,935 compositions by 172 composers from the Renaissance to the present day. Aesthetic success was gauged via compositional popularity and ratings of aesthetic significance and audience accessibility, while aesthetic attributes were assessed by melodic originality and originality variation as determined by a computer content analysis of melodic structure. The results demonstrate that the probability of a work being performed and recorded is a function of aesthetic attributes and melodic content, with direct and indirect effects of artistic, biographical, and historical conditions. Aesthetic taste is thus not arbitrary but lawful, for it is grounded in the intrinsic qualities of a piece, which in turn reflect the state of the composer at the time of composition.

62. Simonton, D. K. (1986b). Harminchat magyar és amerkai novella esztétikai sikeressége [Aesthetic success in 36 Hungarian and American short stories]. Pszichológia, 6, 533-540.
The argument [is] presented . . . that subjective ratings and objective citation measures are essentially equivalent due to underlying contrasts in artistic effectiveness we have been asked to apply our theoretical and methodological wherewithal to 18 Hungarian and 18 American short stories / therefore, these 36 stories provide the basis for addressing the problem at hand / first, I demonstrate that independent assessors will form a consensus on the differential aesthetic success of these short stories / second, I show that this agreement is in accordance with what we would conclude on the basis of an archival citation measure.

63. Simonton, D. K. (1986c). Age, creative productivity, and chance. In Proceedings of the 81st Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, p.92. [Abstract]
A socio-psychological theory of innovation is outlined which can be considered an extensive elaboration, with shifts in nomenclature, of Donald Campbell’s (1960) blind-variation and selective-retention model of knowledge acquisition. Styled the “chance-configuration theory,” this interpretative framework specifies just how chance mediates the connection between individual age and both the creation and the social acceptance of a novel cultural product. In particular, the theory (a) yields an equation that precisely predicts the functional relation between productivity and career age over the life span while concomitantly explicating stable contrasts across disciplines in the age curves, (b) explains the basis for individual differences in productive precocity, contribution rates, and longevity, including the distinctive skewed distribution of total output across careers, and (c) provides a larger conceptual foundation for the constant-probability-of-success model of the association between quantity and quality of productive output both across and within careers. In addition, the chance-configuration theory can handle other key issues in sociocultural change, mot notably, Planck’s principle, the Ortega hypothesis, and the phenomenon of multiple discovery and invention.

64. Simonton, D. K. (1986d). Biographical typicality, eminence, and achievement style. Journal of Creative Behavior, 20, 14-22.
Examined how exceptional achievers in diverse endeavors can be differentiated by their biographical characteristics, using data on 314 famous personalities from a study by M. G. Goertzel et al (1978). Data on each S were given a biographical typicality score and a relative eminence score. The most illustrious contributors to a field were found to be neither typical nor marginal in a biographical sense, although a very modest tendency for the most eminent to be the most typical did exist. Results suggest that there is no basis for discounting the most famous personalities as some variety of freak or oddball; they are just as good exemplars of the biographical antecedents as are their less notable colleagues, and may be a bit more so.

65. Simonton, D. K. (1986e). Dispositional attributions of (presidential) leadership: An experimental simulation of historiometric results. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22, 389-418.
Historiometric results regarding the predictors of presidential greatness were interpreted in terms of an attributional model. The model delineates how historians make dispositional inferences according to a leadership schema that is activated by salient information. Study 1 tested the model by asking naive raters to assess anonymous leaders, whereas Study 2 required identical assessments of anonymous presidents. As predicted, greatness attributions were determined by the same information that is employed by historians, with roughly the same weights. Moreover, impact of the six historiometric predictors (years in office, war, scandal, assassination, war hero, intelligence) on greatness was largely mediated by three semantic components (i.e., strength, activity, goodness). Finally, college undergraduates, though ignorant of the identity of the leaders being rated, if  granted the same limited information, can accurately reproduce the ratings the presidents are given by historians.

66. Simonton, D. K. (1986f). The masterpiece! Who? What? Where? When? Psychology and the Arts Newsletter, Fall/Winter, 4-15. [Presidential address.]

67. Simonton, D. K. (1986g). Multiple discovery: Some Monte Carlo simulations and Gedanken experiments. Scientometrics, 9, 269-280.
Two major interpretations of multiples have been offered, the traditional one based on the scientific zeitgeist, the more recent one based on chance processes. To clarify the issues involved in any plausible explanation, six successive Monte Carlo simulations were developed. Though all models started with the same underlying probabilistic mechanism, several elaborations were introduced, including exhaustion, communication of both successes and failures, and variation in success probability. The models yield the same probability distributions for multiple grades, but they disagree on the frequency of nulltons. Additional Gedanken experiments dealt with the zeitgeist notions of a causal link between potential contributions.

68. Simonton, D. K. (1986h). Multiples, Poisson distributions, and chance: An analysis of the Brannigan-Wanner model. Scientometrics, 9, 127-137.
Brannigan and Wanner argue that the empirical distribution of multiple grades can be more adequately explained in terms of a negative contagious Poisson model. This alterantive is based on a Zeitgeist theory which places emphasis on the role of communication in scientific discovery. Nonetheless, a detailed analysis indicates the following: (a) mathematically, the simple Poisson is the limiting case of the contagious Poisson when the contagion parameter approaches zero; (b) empirically, the mean and variance are so nearly equal (i.e., the contagion effect is very small) that predictions from the contagious Poisson are virtually equivalent to those of the simple Poisson; (c) in particular, both distributions predict that multiples are less common than singletons and even nulltons, the latter occurring with a probability of over one third (thereby implying that chance plays a much bigger part than Zeitgeist or maturational theories would suggest); (d) estimates from the Simonton, Merton, and Ogburn-Thomas data sets all concur that the contagion effect is not only small, but positive besides, yielding a modest positive contagious Poisson that contradicts the principal tenet of the communication interpretation.

69. Simonton, D. K. (1986i). Popularity, content, and context in 37 Shakespeare plays. Poetics, 15, 493-510.
A two-stage research paradigm is outlined: the aesthetic success of an artistic creation is a consequence of intrinsic attributes (form and content), which in turn result from specific biographical and historical context factors. The paradigm is illustrated by exploiting data on the differential popularity of the 37 plays attributed to Shakespeare. Statistical analyses demonstrate that (a) relative aesthetic success can be reliably assessed via objective citation measures, (b) dramatic popularity is affected by the thematic content of each play, and (c) the thematic content has particular contextual antecedents. Thus the methodological paradigm, which has proven fruitful in enhancing our understanding of creativity in classical music, features considerable promise in advancing our appreciation of literary creativity, dramatic or otherwise.

70. Simonton, D. K. (1986j). Presidential greatness: The historical consensus and its psychological significance. Political Psychology, 7, 259-283.
Two interconnected questions are addressed. One, does a historical consensus exist concerning the differential “greatness” of the American presidents? Two, what do these ratings imply about presidential leadership? A factor analysis of 16 presidential assessments indicated the presence of a primary “greatness” dimension and a bipolar “dogmatism” dimension. The three most recent measures were singled out for an analysis aimed at identifying the antecedents of presidential greatness. Hundreds of potential predictors were operationalized, including family background, personality traits, occupational and political experiences, and administration events. Five predictors that replicated across the greatness measures and survived tests for transhistorical invariance. In descending order of predictive generality, these are the number of years in office, the number of years as a wartime commander-in-chief, administration scandal, assassination, and having entered office as a national war hero. The theoretical meaning of these predictors is explored in further empirical analysis and discussion.

71. Simonton, D. K. (1986k). Presidential personality: Biographical use of the Gough Adjective Check List. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 149-160.
The Gough Adjective Check List was used to gauge the personality differences among the 39 American presidents. The original 300 adjectives were reduced to 110 on which reliable assessments were feasible, and a factor analysis collapsed the data into 14 dimensions, namely, Moderation, Friendliness, Intellectual Brilliance, Machiavellianism, Poise and Polish, Achievement Drive, Forcefulness, Wit, Physical Attractiveness, Pettiness, Tidiness, Conservatism, Inflexibility, and Pacifism. All but one of these factors had respectable internal consistency reliability coefficients. The factor scores were further validated by correlating them with (a) previous content-analytical and observer-based assessments and (b) indicators of developmental antecedents and performance criteria, including ratings of presidential greatness. Similarities in personality profiles were explored using a cluster analysis.

72. Simonton, D. K. (1986l). Stochastic models of multiple discovery. Czechoslovak Journal of Physics, B 36, 138-141.
The phenomenon of multiple discovery has been traditionally interpreted as evidence for a “zeitgeist” theory of scientific creativity. As an alternative, multiples are proposed to result from a stochastic process. The simple Poisson is shown to match the observed distribution of multiple grades, while a contagious Poisson introduces a communcation restriction that induces approximate simultaneity. Monte Carlo simulation models have further explored the theoretical requisites for a full explication of the phenomenon. The fundamental generating mechanism is thus shown to be stochastic rather than deterministic.

73. Simonton, D. K. (1986m). Theory and philosophy in the psychology of the arts. Theoretical and Philosophical Psychology, 6, 122-123.

74. Simonton, D. K. (1987a). Musical aesthetics and creativity in Beethoven: A computer analysis of 105 compositions. Empirical Studies of the Arts, 5, 87-104.
A fundamental task in empirical aesthetics is to determine why some artistic creations earn the label “masterpiece” whereas others slip into oblivion. Computer content analyses can help us achieve this goal, first, by isolating connections between the differential aesthetic success of diverse works and their content attributes, and, second, by identifying the compositional, biographical, and historical correlates of those content analytical predictors. After reviewing the key findings with respect to the thousands of musical pieces defining the classical repertoire, this investigation strategy is applied to 105 compositions (containing 593 themes) by Beethoven. Two distinct measures of artistic impact, compositional popularity and aesthetic signifiance, were shown to be associated – often in a curvilinear fashion – with four content characteristics: melodic originality and variation and metric originality and variation. Some of these attributes are linked to such circumstances as the work’s key, the instrumentation, and the number of movements, Beethoven’s age and concurrent level of productivity, stress, and health, and the presence of international war in Europe. Hence, an objective, computer analysis can enhance our understanding of the aesthetic and creative processes behind a single creator’s artistic reputation.

75. Simonton, D. K. (1987b). Developmental antecedents of achieved eminence. Annals of Child Development, 5, 131-169.

76. Simonton, D. K. (1987c). Genius: The lessons of historiometry. In S. G. Isaksen (Ed.), Frontiers of creativity research: Beyond the basics (pp. 66-87). Buffalo, NY: Bearly Limited.

77. Simonton, D. K. (1987d). Multiples, chance, genius, creativity, and zeitgeist. In D. N. Jackson & J. P. Rushton (Eds.), Scientific excellence: Origins and assessment (pp. 98-128). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.
Chapter outlines a theoretical interpretation of multiples review of recent attempts to advance an entirely new conception of the multiples phenomenon.

78. Simonton, D. K. (1987e). Presidential inflexibility and veto behavior: Two individual-situational interactions. Journal of Personality, 55, 1-18.
The suitable personality traits for optimal leadership may depend on the type of leadership, the criterion of leader effectiveness, and various situational constraints. This point was illustrated via the specific area of presidential leadership. The working relationship between: the Chief Executive and Congress, as defined by regular vetoes overturned, provided the criterion variables for a congressional time-series analysis (N = 99) of all 39 American presidents. The impact of a single personality attribute, presidential inflexibility, was examined in the context of several variables suggested by past research. The relation between inflexibility and willingness to exploit the regular veto varied according to the incumbent’s electoral mandate, while the association between inflexibility and the propensity of Congress to override a veto depended on the extent to which the president’s party controlled Congress – this last interaction was labeled the Johnson-Wilson effect. In the context of the person-situation debate, these findings illustrate how situations can determine whether, and to what degree, a stable individual attribute will have behavioral manifestations.

79. Simonton, D. K. (1987f). Why presidents succeed: A political psychology of leadership. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
In this book, Dean Keith Simonton takes an innovative look at the issue of presidential success, proposing that we evaluate American presidents quantitatively instead of qualitatively. Simonton measures presidential performance by four criteria-elections, public opinion polls, relations with Congress, and evaluation by historians [from the jacket].

80. Martindale, C., Brewer, W. F., Helson, R., Rosenberg, S., Simonton, D. K., Keeley, A., Leigh, J., & Ohtsuka, K. (1988). Structure, theme, style, and reader response in Hungarian and American short stories. In C. Martindale (Ed.), Psychological approaches to the study of literary narratives (pp. 267-289). Hamburg: Buske.
Attempt to show the interrelations of the quantitative measures used in these individual chapters / in regard to the texts themselves, we have gathered measures of overall typicality as well as more specific indices of story structure, semantics, and lexical realization / we have also obtained measures of readers’ cognitive and affective responses to the stories / below, we first give a brief description of the variables in each of these categories / then the most important interrelationships about the variables are described the three basic questions we have sought to answer in this chapter are (1) what determines overall story typicality, (2) how are structural, semantic, and linguistic aspects of literary texts interrelated, and (3) what determines liking for and interest in a literary text looked at the global relations of structural variables, thematic variables, and stylistic variables and their relations to reader response variables.

81. Simonton, D. K. (1988a). Age and outstanding achievement: What do we know after a century of research? Psychological Bulletin, 104, 251-267.
This article examines, in four sections, the substantial literature on the longitudinal connection between personal age and outstanding achievement in domains of creativity and leadership. First, the key empirical findings are surveyed, with special focus on the typical age curve and its variations across disciplines, the association between precocity, longevity, and production rate, and the linkage between quantity and quality of output over the course of a career. Second, the central methodological issues are outlined, such as the compositional fallacy and differential competition, in order to appraise the relative presence of fact and artifact in the reported results. Third, the more important theoretical interpretations of the longitudinal data are presented and then evaluated for explanatory and predictive power. Fourth and last, central empirical, methodological, and theoretical considerations lead to a set of critical questions on which future research should likely concentrate.

82. Simonton, D. K. (1988b). Creativity, leadership, and chance. In R. J. Sternberg (Ed.), The nature of creativity: Contemporary psychological perspectives (pp. 386-426). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Creativity is a form of leadership in that it entails personal influence over others creativity involves the participation of chance processes both in the origination of new ideas and in the social acceptance of those ideas by others the theory. Topics: ; chance permutations; configuration formation; configuration acquisition; self-organization; communication and acceptance; communication configurations; social acceptance empirical elaboration; creative process; anecdotes; introspective reports; individual differences; motivation; productivity; developmental antecedents; role models; formal education; Zeitgeist; marginality; multiples; logical issues; empirical issues [from the chapter].

83. Simonton, D. K. (1988c). Evolution and creativity. Journal of Social and Biological Structures, 11, 151-153.

84. Simonton, D. K. (1988d). Galtonian genius, Kroeberian configurations, and emulation: A generational time-series analysis of Chinese civilization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 230-238.
In his attack on Galton’s (1869) theory of genius, Kroeber (1944) introduced the ideas of cultural configurations and individual emulation. These concepts are translated into testable hypotheses that can be evaluated using a sample of 10,160 eminent creators, leaders, and celebrities from Chinese civilization. After aggregating these historical figures into 141 twenty-year periods for 35 achievement categories, generational time-series analyses indicated (a) that major and minor figures tend to fluctuate together across historical time and (b) that both unweighted and weighted fluctuations are adequately described by first- or second-order autoregressive models (once exponential trends are removed). Although the results offer tentative support for Kroeber’s position, some latitude remains for a much-qualified version of Galton’s thesis.

85. Simonton, D. K. (1988e). Quality and purpose, quantity and chance. Creativity Research Journal, 1, 68-74.
Discusses method and theory as points of convergence and contrast between the paradigms adopted by D. K. Simonton (e.g., 1980, 1988) and H. E. Gruber (1991) on creativity. While Gruber’s evolving systems approach to individual creativity is ideographic, Simonton recommends single case historiometry, which can address ideographic and nomothetic questions simultaneously. Simonton’s (1988) chance-configuration theory of genius is contrasted with Gruber’s notion of “purpose” in his evolving systems paradigm.

86. Simonton, D. K. (1988f). Presidential style: Personality, biography, and performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 928-936.
Past research in the personality basis of leadership has led several investigators to study the characteristics of American presidents using content-analytical and biographical measures. In this article, biographical information on 39 U.S. chief executives provided the basis for assessments by seven raters on 82 items concerning presidential style. The presidents could be reliably discriminated on 49 items, which a factor analysis reduced to five dimensions: the interpersonal, charismatic, deliberative, creative, and neurotic styles. These styles were shown to be related to broader personality traits, biographical experiences, and both objective and subjective indicators of leader performance.

87. Simonton, D. K. (1988g). Scientific genius: A psychology of science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
In this book, Dean Keith Simonton, develops a theory of scientific genius. His starting point in Donald Campbell’s “blind variation and selective retention” model of creativity, which he elaborates into his own “chance-configuration” theory. He then uses this to account for key aspects of pathbreaking science. He considers the mental processes and behaviors behind the creative act, including intuition, incubation, and serendipity. He discusses the cognitive and motivational styles of great scientists in terms of a personality typology. He examines the causes and consequences of exceptional productivity: individual differences in lifetime output, the functional relation between age and achievement, the probabilistic connection between quantity and quality, and such issues as the Ortega hypothesis, the Yuasa phenomenon, and Planck’s principle. He reviews the developmental antecedents of distinguished scientific work – family background, education, role models, marginality, and the zeitgeist – with respect to their complex impact on the growth of creative potential [from the cover].

88. Simonton, D. K. (1989a). Age and creative productivity: Nonlinear estimation of an information-processing model. International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 29, 23-37.
A two-step cognitive model is outlined that explicates the key empirical findings on the relation between age and creative productivity. Two primary information-processing parameters, the ideation and elaboration rates, define a mathematical function that both describes the age curves and specifies how those curves vary across disciplines. To validate the model further, a nonlinear estimation program was applied to previously published tabulations on the longitudinal fluctuations in creative output. The resulting parameter estimates also yield the expected peak age and the creative half-life for each domain of achievement. Despite the prediction of a post-peak decline, the model’s implications for creativity over the life span are optimistic.

89. Simonton, D. K. (1989b). The chance-configuration theory of scientific creativity. In B. Gholson, W. R. Shadish, Jr., R. A. Neimeyer, & A. C. Houts (Eds.), The psychology of science: Contributions to metascience (pp. 170- 213). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
The chance-configuration theory provides a useful “psychology of science” / it explicates anecdotal and introspective reports concerning the creative process in science, and it integrates the varied empirical findings regarding the personality characteristics and developmental antecedents associated with scientific creativity the theory specifically explains the probability distribution of multiple grades, the occurrence of both simultaneous contributions and rediscoveries, and the probabilistic link between scientific eminence and multiples participation [From the chapter].

90. Simonton, D. K. (1989c). Creativity and individual development. In T. Husen & T. N. Postlethwaite (Eds.), International encyclopedia of education: Supplementary volume one (pp. 181-184). New York: Pergamon Books.

91. Simonton, D. K. (1989d). Shakespeare’s sonnets: A case of and for single-case historiometry. Journal of Personality, 57, 695-721.
The two oldest forms of psychohistory, as generically defined, are psychbiography (idiographic, qualitative, and single-case) and historiometry (nomothetic, quantitative, and multiple-case). In practice this distinction gets blurred, both because psychobiography is often nomothetic (e.g., psychoanalytic) and because historiometry may work with N = 1.  After outlining the assets of single-case historiometry, a specific case is given in an analysis of 154 sonnets of William Shakespeare. These sonnets were first reliably differentiated on aesthetic success according to an archival popularity measure, and then this relative merit was predicted using content analytical measures suggested by research on artistic creativity. The superior sonnets (a) treat specific themes, (b) display considerable thematic richness in the number of issues discussed, (c) exhibit greater linguistic complexity as gauged by such objective measures as the type-token ratio and adjective-verb quotient, and (d) feature more primary process imagery (using Martindale’s Regressive Imagery Dictionary). Afterdiscussing how these results can enlarge our general understanding of artistic creativity as well as our specific appreciation of Shakespeare’s creativity, the potential application of single-case historiometry to intrinsically psychobiographical problems is examined.

92. Simonton, D. K. (1989e). The surprising nature of scientific genius. The Scientist, 3 (February 6), 9, 11.

93. Simonton, D. K. (1989f). The swan-song phenomenon: Last-works effects for 172 classical composers. Psychology and Aging, 4, 42-47.
Creative individuals approaching their final years of life may undergo a transformation in outlook that is reflected in their last works. This hypothesized effect was quantitatively assessed for an extensive sample of 1,919 works by 172 classical composers. The works were independently gauged on seven aesthetic attributes (melodic originality, melodic variation, repertoire popularity, aesthetic significance, listener accessibility, performance duration, and thematic size), and potential last-works effects were operationally defined two separate ways (linearly and exponentially). Statistical controls were introduced for both longitudinal changes (linear, quadratic, and cubic age functions) and individual differences (eminence and lifetime productivity). Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that composers’ swan songs tend to score lower in melodic originality and performance duration but higher in repertoire popularity and aesthetic significance. These last-works effects survive control for total compositional output, eminence, and most significantly, the composer’s age when the last works were created.

94. Simonton, D. K. (1990a). Creativity and wisdom in aging. In J. E. Birren & K. W. Schaie (Eds.), Handbook of the psychology of aging (3rd ed., pp. 320-329). New York: Academic Press.
Begins by briefly reviewing the central empirical findings of lifespan changes in both creativity and wisdom. An attempt is made to integrate these data by reviewing some empirical and theoretical results that seem germane to both characteristics [from the chapter].

95. Simonton, D. K. (1990b). Creativity in the later years: Optimistic prospects for achievement. Gerontologist, 30, 626-631.
Despite the apparent decline in productivity in the final years of life, seven considerations suggest a more favorable outlook: the actual magnitude of the age decrement; the role of extrinsic influences; the contingency on career age; the impact of individual differences in creative potential; the interdisciplinary variation in the age curves; the virtual absence of an age decrement on a contribution-for-contribution basis; and the resurgence of creativity in the form of the swan-song phenomenon.

96. Simonton, D. K. (1990c). Does creativity decline in the later years? Definition, data, and theory. In M. Perlmutter (Ed.), Late life potential (pp. 83-112). Washington, DC: Gerontological Society of America.

97. Simonton, D. K. (1990d). History, chemistry, psychology, and genius: An intellectual autobiography of historiometry. In M. Runco & R. Albert (Eds.), Theories of creativity (pp. 92-115). Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.
In an autobiographical description of a gifted youth as potential, he [the author] presented a cogent argument for what might be called a reciprocal-interactive model / discussed the ambivalence that distal cultures (e.g., educational opportunities and content) may show to talent and the formative pushes and pulls of the proximal family as a source of internalized material and motivation for continuous intellectual and occupational growth [from the book].

98. Simonton, D. K. (1990e). Lexical choices and aesthetic success: A computer content analysis of 154 Shakespeare sonnets. Computers and the Humanities, 24, 251-264.
A research paradigm is suggested that combines the perspectives of the humanistic scholar and the behavioral scientist: After differentiating the popularity of actual aesethic products using archival indices and then subjecting these compositions to objective computer content analyses, further statistical treatment may divulge the intrinsic properties responsible for differences in impact. This approach is illustrated by an analysis of the 154 sonnets attributed to William Shakespeare. Each sonnet was partitioned into four consecutive units (three quatrains and a couplet), and then a computer gauged how the number of words, different words, unique words, primary process imagery, and secondary process imagery changed within each sonnet. Taking advantage of a previous objective measure of the relative aesthetic merit of the sonnets, and implementing a statistical search for interaction effects, it was demonstrated that Shakespeare’s lexical choices adopt a discernable pattern in the highly popular creations that is not found in the more obscure poems. Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of this pattern shift is the distinct manner in which the poet modifies his vocabulary when composing the concluding couplet in his best sonnets.

99. Simonton, D. K. (1990f). Monsieur appends reflections. Creativity Research Journal, 3, 146-149.
Simonton responds to comments by Bailin, Feldman, Hausman, Martindale, Rubenson, Stariha and Walberg, and Stein on his article on political pathology and societal creativity.

100. Simonton, D. K. (1990g). Personality and politics. In L. A. Pervin (Ed.), Handbook of personality theory and research (pp. 670-692). New York: Guilford.
The psychometric examination of political leaders represents the leading edge of current personality research, the present chapter is primarily a review of this innovative work the emphasis is on the connection between personality and political leadership the fundamental tenet of personality psychology is that people vary: considerable individual differences exist on an impressive array of traits, and this variation presumably translates into consistent patterns of behavior across diverse situations / equally manifest to any observer of the political scene is the parallel axiom that people differ in their relevant attitudes and actions / this personal diversity is apparent in ideology, party affiliation, candidate preferences, policy choices, and political leadership for the personality psychologist fascinated with political phenomena, the central question is this: how do the personal traits that are so conspicuous in everyday life determine the more exceptional events that characterize the world of politics this issue breaks down into three subsidiary questions / how does personality affect the political follower / how is personality involved in the policy and performance of the political leader / how does personality enter into the attitudes and behaviors of the political activist, the individual who often occupies the middle ground between follower and leader [from the chapter].

101. Simonton, D. K. (1990h). Political pathology and societal creativity. Creativity Research Journal, 3, 85-99.
Complementing the hypothesized intimate relation between creativity and psychopathology at the individual level are conjectures concerning the relation between creativity and pathology at the sociocultural level. This article reviews the empirical literature on the subject, with special focus on how societal creativity is affected by international war, external threat, political instability, and civil disturbances. Such events and circumstances are shown to affect both the quantity of creative activity and the form that any creativity takes. Although some of these effects are short-term and transient, other influences operate after some delay and tend to be more lasting. There follows a discussion of what these results imply about how creativity at the individual level is shaped by the social context in which creative development and thought take place.

102. Simonton, D. K. (1990i). Psychology, science, and history: An introduction to historiometry. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Is there a scientific way to assess the validity of generalizations about historical events? Can we test psychological hypotheses about human behavior? In this book Dean Keith Simonton describes how the emerging field of historiometry provides such tests by applying quantitative analyses to historical data about representative people and events. Simonton, a pioneer in the field, presents an overview of historiometry, explaining how it is practiced and how useful it can be to historians, psychologists, and other social scientists. In clear and accessible language, Simonton discusses the methodology of historiometry: formulating the basic questions of a study, deciding what information is necessary, and analyzing the information so as to assess the original hypothesis. He then shows how historiometry has expanded our scientific understanding of such key phenomena as genius, creativity, leadership, and aggression. By scrutinizing the personal papers, biographies, and creative output of historical figures ranging from composers, writers, and scientists to American presidents, European monarchs, and generals, practitioners of historiometry can illuminate many variables affecting human personality and achievement. Throughout the book, Simonton provides examples of the way that historiometry offers insights into such areas as the degree to which attitudes toward politicians are influenced by specific persuasion techniques, the effect of economic and political conditions on the authoritarian personality, and the impact of genetic endowment, birth order, family background, and formal education on personality development [from the jacket].

103. Simonton, D. K. (1990j). Some optimistic thoughts on the pessimistic-rumination thesis. Psychological Inquiry, 1, 73-75.
Comments on Zullow and Seligman’s study of the effects of pessimistic rumination on election outcomes and discusses research strategies in political psychology. It is suggested that Zullow and Seligman’s explanatory construct needs to be integrated with the prediction schemes of political scientists.

104. Simonton, D. K. (1991a). Career landmarks in science: Individual differences and interdisciplinary contrasts. Developmental Psychology, 27, 119-130.
A conceptual framework is introduced for interpreting individual differences in the developmental location of the first, best, and last contributions of a creative career. Eight hypotheses are offered that specify how the placement of the three landmarks over the life span should vary according to both individual differences (in age at career onset, lifetime productivity, and eminence) and interdisciplinary contrasts (resulting from the inherent cognitive requirements of each field). The hypotheses are then confirmed on a sample of 2,026 scientists and inventors (even after introducing controls for potential artifacts). The results (a) place further constraints on theoretical explanations of the relation between age and creative productivity, (b) lead to new predictions regarding how creative achievement may vary across and within careers, and (c) suggest how to examine changes in creative potential from childhood through old age.

105. Simonton, D. K. (1991b). Creative productivity through the adult years. Generations: Journal of the American Society on Aging, 15, 13-16.
Considers 6 points in discussing the decline in creative powers in the latter half of life. The generalized age curve is a function of career rather than chronological age; the average rate of output in the 70s falls to around half the rate seen at the career optimum in the 30s and 40s; and age curves vary substantially across disciplines. Also, studies show that the quality of output across the life span is strongly associated with the quantity of output; individuals vary greatly in creative potential; and creative productivity can undergo a substantial renaissance in the final years.

106. Simonton, D. K. (1991c). Emergence and realization of genius: The lives and works of 120 classical composers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61, 829-840.
Building on a model of individual differences in career development, new predictions are proposed regarding the preparatory phase of a creative life. After data on an elite sample of 120 classical composers from the Renaissance to the 20th century were collected, productivity variables were defined in terms of both themes and works, and the “hits” in each category were identified according to actual popularity. The theory successfully provided a foundation for understanding the positive, negative, and null relationships among eminence, lifetime output, maximum annual output, and the ages of first lessons, first composition, first hit, best hit, last hit, maximum annual output, and death. On the basis of the results, further questions are raised regarding the early childhood roots of adulthood creativity.

107. Simonton, D. K. (1991d). Genes and genius from Galton to Freud. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 14, 406-407.

108. Simonton, D. K. (1991e). Latent-variable models of posthumous reputation: A quest for Galton’s G. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 607-619.
Galton’s (1869) theory of genius posits an intimate correspondence between personal ability and social eminence. This connection implies that the covariance structure for multiple indicators of distinction is described by a simple single-factor model. After defining rival models that predict no traitlike consistency and stability, structural equation software programs (TETRAD and EQS) were used to test 4 alternative measurement models on 5 data sets of between 6 and 16 indicators each (28 presidents, 2,012 philosophers, 772 artists, 696 composers, and a subset of 92 composers). Despite slight method artifacts that sometimes suggested the addition of correlated error terms, a single-factor model provided a precise and parsimonious explanation for all covariance matrices, even when the eminence measures were separated by several decades. Galton’s G may have a behavioral basis in an achiever’s lifetime contributions.

109. Simonton, D. K. (1991f). Personality correlates of exceptional personal influence: A note on Thorndike’s (1950) creators and leaders. Creativity Research Journal, 4, 67-78.
Past investigations suggest that the magnitude of social influence exerted by an eminent individual may be determined by similar personality traits for both creators and leaders. This hypothesis is tested by examining 91 historical figures whom Thorndike (1950) had assessed on 48 characteristics. After collapsing the assessments into the four dimensions of industriousness, extraversion, aggressiveness, and intelligence, and objectively measuring the differential eminence of the individuals using a composite archival index, it was found that achieved distinction in both domains was a positive linear function of intelligence and aggressiveness. Not only were the functions identical across both creators and leaders, but the relationships also seemed to be transhistorically invariant.

110. Simonton, D. K. (1991g). Predicting presidential greatness: An alternative to the Kenney and Rice Contextual Index. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 21, 301-305.
In this journal Kenney and Rice proposed an equation that predicts a president’s long-term reputation in terms of eight contextual factors. Their Contextual Index is compared with an earlier six-variable equation that was constructed from a multivarite analysis of a huge database on presidential leadership. Despite some overlap in predictors, the recommended alternative has twice the predictive power and is robust across over a dozen different assessments of presidential greatness. The six predictors are years in office, number of war years, assassination, war hero, intelligence, and scandal. However, both predictive schemes suggest that Reagan will go down in history as an above-average but not outstanding chief executive.

111. Simonton, D. K. (1991h). [Review of the book Genius: The history of an idea, P. Murray (Ed.)]. Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 27, 174-176.

112. Simonton, D. K. (1991i). [Review of the book Understanding quantitative history, L. Haskins & K. Jeffrey]. Social Science Quarterly, 72, 855-856.

113. Simonton, D. K. (1992a). The child parents the adult: On getting genius from giftedness. In N. Colangelo, S. G. Assouline, & D. L. Ambroson (Eds.), Talent development: Volume I. Proceedings from the 1991 Henry B. and Jocelyn Wallace National Research Symposium on Talent Development (pp. 278-297). Unionville, NY: Trillium Press.

114. Simonton, D. K. (1992b). Gender and genius in Japan: Feminine eminence in masculine culture. Sex Roles, 27, 101-119.
The number of distinguished women was hypothesized to fluctuate over consecutive historical periods according to concomitant change in the dominant male culture. Three conjectures were evaluated in 2,453 Japanese creators and leaders active between 580 and 1959. Applying generational time-series analysis to 69 consecutive 20-year periods, indicators gauged changes in female literary and nonliterary eminence along with male literary activity, power and aggressive behavior, and ideology. Although the emergence of gender-biased belief systems was negatively associated with female distinction in all domains, literary success of both men and women was linked to similar contextual factors, especially a negative association with male power and aggressive activities. The group-level results are interpreted in terms of possible individual and interpersonal processes.

115. Simonton, D. K. (1992c). Late-life creativity: Who is really over the hill? Executive Health’s Good Health Report, 28, 1, 4-6.

116. Simonton, D. K. (1992d). Leaders of American psychology, 1879-1967: Career development, creative output, and professional achievement. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 5-17.
Building on previous work in the metasciences, this article examines 69 eminent psychologists who helped make the US a center of disciplinary activity. After measuring professional eminence (occupying the American Psychological Association presidency and posthumous reputation), creative output (using both citation indicators and a content analysis of titles), and career development (aspects of graduate training and institutional affiliations), along with essential control variables, the analyses (a) provide a sketch of the “typical” eminent American psychologist, (b) trace the historical trends in the general profile across 8 decades, and (c) identify some cognitive and behavioral factors underlying differential distinction.

117. Simonton, D. K. (1992e). Presidential greatness and personality: A response to McCann (1992). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 676-679.
McCann (1992) offered a new set of equations that predict presidential greatness. He explicitly argued that his new equations contradict the attributional model put forward by Simonton (1986, 1987). However, several conceptual and statistical problems may undermine the force of his argument. These include (a) a selection procedure that exploits arbitrary fluctuations in samples and ratings, (b) the choice not to reopen the search for situational predictors, (c) an excessive reliance on an inferior measure of presidential greatness, (d) the use of statistical procedures that may distort the true effect sizes, and (e) the decision to ignore the larger body of research supporting Simonton’s equations and their theoretical interpretation.

118. Simonton, D. K. (1992f). Psychoeconomic creativity –  How psychological? How economic? How creative?: A response to Rubenson and Runco. New Ideas in Psychology, 10, 167-171.
Comments on the article by Rubenson and Runco concerning a psychoeconomic model of the creative process and discusses the pros and cons of the model.

119. Simonton, D. K. (1992g). [Review of the book Creativity and psychological health: Origins of personal vitality and creative freedom, F. Barron]. American Journal of Psychology, 105, 119-123.

120. Simonton, D. K. (1992h). [Review of the book Innovation and creativity at work: Psychological and organizational strategies, M. A. West & J. L. Farr (Eds.)]. Administrative Science Quarterly, 37, 679-681.

121. Simonton, D. K. (1992i). The social context of career success and course for 2,026 scientists and inventors. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 18, 452-463.
The career success and course of 2,026 eminent scientists and inventors were examined relative to the social networks in which their work took place. Career success was gauged by eminence and lifetime contributions; career course was assessed by the age at first, best, and last contributions and the career duration. Once social relationships were grouped into 15 categories, such as mentors, collaborators, and successors, the relationships were assessed according to their number, eminence, and age gap. Controlling for potential artifacts, analysis revealed how career achievements were associated with the presence of specific proximal and distal interactions and influences across and within generations. Isaac Newton is shown to typify the overall pattern of results.

122. Simonton, D. K. (1993a). Blind variations, chance configurations, and creative genius. Psychological Inquiries, 4, 225-228.
Comments on Eysenck’s proposed theory of a link between creativity and psychoticism. It is contended that Eysenck has misconstrued what the author meant by the word “chance” in his own theories. The main cause of this misunderstanding is that many people perceive chance in dichotomous terms. A process is thought to be either chancy or determined by some logic. To appreciate properly the role of chance in creativity, however, the phenomenon should be contemplated as a continuum. It is argued that the creative process becomes more probabilistic when the number of potential paths to a solution increases and when the subjective odds that these alternative paths will lead to a solution becomes more equal and, so, equally small besides. By defining the probabilistic nature of creativity this way, the controversy between Eysenck’s view and Simonton’s view disappears.

123. Simonton, D. K. (1993b). Creative genius in music: Mozart and other composers. In P. F. Ostwald & L. S. Zegans (Ed.), The pleasures and perils of genius: Mostly Mozart (pp. 1-28). New York: International Universities Press.
[Defines] what we mean by genius, with emphasis on how we can justify assigning that label to Mozart, reviews the key empirical findings about musical genius, and discusses how and whether Mozart exemplifies the emerging picture psychometric genius. Topics: historiometric genius / the life of genius [developmental antecedents, career performance] / the works of genius [stress, aging, death] / Mozart as prototypical genius [from the chapter].

124. Simonton, D. K. (1993c). Esthétique et créativité en musique classique: Ce que les ordinateurs peuvent décrypter à partir des six premières notes [Esthetics and creativity in classical music: What computers can decipher from the first six notes]. Bulletin de Psychologie, 46, 476-483.

125. Simonton, D. K. (1993d). From childhood giftedness to creative genius. In J. Brzezinski, S. Di Nuovo, T. Marek, & T. Maruszewski (Eds.), Creativity and consciousness: Philosophical and psychological dimensions (pp. 367-381). Amsterdam: Rodopi.

126. Simonton, D. K. (1993e). Further Details on VOTER HELPERTM 1.0: A response to the editor’s comments. Political Psychology, 14, 555-558.
Responds to comments by S. A. Renshon concerning the present author’s (1994) views on selecting the best political leaders for the US presidency. Simonton clarifies his position about the way future political psychologists might make recommendations and the use of the hypothetical software, VOTER HELPER.

127. Simonton, D. K. (1993f). Genius and chance: A Darwinian perspective. In J. Brockman (Ed.), Creativity: The Reality Club IV (pp. 176-201). New York: Simon & Schuster.
Discusses a spinoff of Darwin’s revolutionary hypothesis [of evolution] / Darwinian ideas have inspired the framework for a comprehensive theory of creativity / outline this theory under four headings: (1) thoughts and processes, (2) products and ideas, (3) persons and personalities, and (4) schools and cultures / these headings demarcate the four levels at which Darwinian creativity functions [from the chapter].

128. Simonton, D. K. (1993g). JCB’s quarter century… and beyond. Journal of Creative Behavior, 27 (4), v-vi.

129. Simonton, D. K. (1993h). The new editor speaks… Journal of Creative Behavior, 27 (3), v-vi.

130. Simonton, D. K. (1993i). Putting the best leaders in the White House: Personality, policy, and performance. Political Psychology, 14, 539-550.
This paper discusses what political psychology might have to offer in making it more likely that the best leaders might become presidents of the United States. An analytical framework outlines some of the more likely contributions of the political psychologist to the electoral process. This framework defines how the leader’s personality, likely policy preferences, and political performance may be objectively inferred from available biographical and content analytical data. After reviewing examples of relevant empirical research, the paper closes with a discussion of the assets and liabilities of the analysis.

131. Simonton, D. K. (1994a). Computer content analysis of melodic structure: Classical composers and their compositions. Psychology of Music, 22, 31-43.
The computerized content analysis of musical structure can reveal a great deal about the psychology of musical aesthetics and creativity. This is shown in a series of studies on 15,618 themes by 479 classical composers. Computer assessments of a composition’s originality are associated with (a) temporal changes across time, whether in the successive movements of a large composition, different stages of a composer’s career, or alterations of the prevalent stylistic zeitgeist in Western music; (b) dramatic events and situations in the composer’s life; and (c) the aesthetic importance, listener accessibility, and ultimate poularity of the compositions producted. Notwithstanding the apparent simplicity of the measure, the computer can still infer many important factors that affect the creation and evaluation of musical compositions.

132. Simonton, D. K. (1994b). Creativity inside out – but not upside down [Review of the book Creative cognition: Theory, research, and applications, R. A. Finke, T. B. Ward, & S. M. Smith]. Contemporary Psychology, 39, 12-13.

133. Simonton, D. K. (1994c). Editor’s comments… Reflections on the past year. Journal of Creative Behavior, 28 (4), iv.

134. Simonton, D. K. (1994d). Genius and giftedness: Parallels and discrepancies. In N. Colangelo, S. G. Assouline, & D. L. Ambroson (Eds.), Talent development: Volume II. Proceedings from the 1993 Henry B. and Jocelyn Wallace National Research Symposium on Talent Development (pp. 39-82). Dayton, OH: Ohio Psychology Publishing.

135. Simonton, D. K. (1994e). Greatness: Who makes history and why. New York: Guilford Press.
In this [book, the author] examines a range of important personalities and events that have influenced the course of history. He discusses how people who go down in history might be different from the rest of us, and explores which personality traits predispose certain people to become world leaders, movie stars, scientific geniuses, and star athletes. In exploring the psychology of greatness, this [book] also sheds light on the characteristics that any of us may share with history-making people [from the cover].

136. Simonton, D. K. (1994f). Individual differences, developmental changes, and social context. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 17, 552-553.

137. Simonton, D. K. (1994g). [Review of the book Motivation and personality: Handbook of thematic content analysis, C. P. Smith, Ed.]. Political Psychology, 15, 603-606.
Author examines the principal assets of the reviewed book. These include an extremely comprehensive treatment of the principal methods of thematic content analysis and the provision of coding manuals and practice materials to enable researchers to master the techniques. While concentrating on motivational variables, content analytical strategies are provided for other domains as well, such as cognitive and interpersonal. Not every possible content analytical system is presented, and the volume can become rather technical and demanding, but on the whole it represents a major contribution to the measurement literature.

138. Simonton, D. K. (1994h). Scientific eminence, the history of psychology, and term paper topics: A metascience approach. Teaching of Psychology, 21, 169-171.
Teachers of courses in the history of psychology sometimes assign term papers requiring the treatment of a single major figure in the discipline. One instructive conceptual framework for writing such “great person” essays is to interpret a psychologist’s life and work according to the typical profile of an eminent scientist. This profile is provided by empirical research in the metasciences, especially the psychology of science. A sample handout suggests some of the questions that students can address when evaluating whether an eminent psychologist.

139. Simonton, D. K. (1994i). Three life-span perspectives on talent development. In N. Colangelo, S. G. Assouline, D. L. Ambroson (Eds.), Talent development: Volume II. Proceedings from the 1993 Henry B. and Jocelyn Wallace National Research Symposium on Talent Development (pp. 133-136). Dayton, OH: Ohio Psychology Publishing.

140. Simonton, D. K. (1995a). A sampler of tasty tidbits [Review of the book Dimensions of creativity, M. A. Boden (Ed.)]. Contemporary Psychology, 40, 968-969.
Review noting that these papers were originally presented at meetings of The Achievement Project, a research group sponsored by the Renaissance Trust in Great Britain. Simon Schaffer discusses the rich historical and philosophical complexity of what we psychologists often style a “discovery.” Schaffer shows that discovery is often a long, drawn-out affair with numerous participants. The next chapter, by Gerd Gigerenzer, also performs a historical analysis, only this time the topic of discussion documents a “tools-to-theories” model, in which the methods that behavioral scientists use later become metaphors that are elevated to the level of scientific theory. Margaret Boden’s own contribution takes a different approach altogether. As a computer scientist and philosopher, her interest is in computational models of the creative process. Most conspicuous is the book’s emphasis on pure research, thereby omitting any detailed discussion of educational practices, organizational constraints, personnel selection, and similar issues that figure prominently in the applied research on creativity. In short, this collection cannot be said to constitute a “handbook.” Thus the book’s title is wisely chosen.

141. Simonton, D. K. (1995b). Behavioral laws in histories of psychology: Psychological science, metascience, and the psychology of science. Psychological Inquiry, 6, 89-114.
Suggests that histories of psychology frequently include statements that explicitly or implicitly express behavioral laws citing ideas, individuals, or groups. Usually, these meta-historical generalizations provide covering laws for explanatory accounts, contextual frames, or paradoxical contrasts. These abstract propositions come from many sources, vary immensely in scientific validity, and are found in psychological publications besides histories, including book reviews, obituaries, journal articles, monographs, and trade books. It is suggested that not only could the authors of these nomothetic claims make better use of empirical results in the metasciences, but these assertions themselves offer an inventory of valuable hypotheses that should inspire research in the behavioral sciences and especially in the psychology of science.

142. Simonton, D. K. (1995c). Creativity. In G. L. Maddox (Ed.), The encyclopedia of aging (2nd ed., pp. 241-243). New York: Springer.

143. Simonton, D. K. (1995d). Creativity as heroic: Risk, success, failure, and acclaim. In C. M. Ford & D. A. Gioia (Eds.), Creativity in organizations: Ivy tower visions and real world voices (pp. 88-93). Newbury Park, CA: Sage.

144. Simonton, D. K. (1995e). Editor’s comments: Current and forthcoming features. Journal of Creative Behavior, 29 (3), iii-v.

145. Simonton, D. K. (1995f). Drawing inferences from symphonic programs: Musical attributes versus listener attributions. Music Perception, 12, 307-322.
In classical music listening, program announcements, both on radio and in concerts, will usually introduce the performance of a symphony with the same minimal articles of information, such as the composer, the order of composition, the key, and the name, if any. But how much can a listener infer about the musical attributes of the work from these basic facts? Examination of 99 symphonies by 13 symphonists between Beethoven and Shostakovich showed that such rudimentary programmatic data can predict several subjective and objective features, including aesthetic significance, listener accessibility, repertoire popularity, melodic originality, originality variation, and playing time. Discussion follows about what these empirical relationships may imply about how composers create their symphonies and how appreciators perceive those musical products.

146. Simonton, D. K. (1995g). Exceptional personal influence: An integrative paradigm. Creativity Research Journal, 8, 371-376.
Comments on the article by Kasof (1996) on attributions for creative behavior. Simonton presents a paradigm for exceptional personal influence. The paradigm centers on 3 vertices of a triangle: the person who manifests personal influence, the others who respond to the target person, and the environment. Simonton invites the reader to consider Kasof’s ideas in the context of his paradigm.

147. Simonton, D. K. (1995h). Foresight in insight? A Darwinian answer. In R. J. Sternberg & J. E. Davidson (Eds.), The nature of insight (pp. 465-494). Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.
The article develops further a Darwinian (variation-selection) model of the creative process. After providing introspective and anecdotal evidence for the theory, two key questions are addressed. First, what is the role of chance in the creative process? Second, how aware are creators of the processes underlying their insights? The article then treats the problem of whether creative insights can display any foresight according to the Darwinian model. The discussion begins with the role of prior preparation, both in the long-term and in the short-term. It then ends with an examination of whether the ultimate fate of insights can be predicted at either personal or social levels.

148. Simonton, D. K. (1995i). Many are called, but few are chosen [Review of the book Talented teenagers: The roots of success and failure, M. Csikszentmihalyi, K. Rathunde, & S. Whalen]. Contemporary Psychology, 40, 733-735.
Talented Teenagers investigates how talent develops over time. Csikszentmihalyi et al scrutinize five different domains of giftedness, a broad definition of talent that permits the examination of similarities and differences in talent development across contrasting forms of achievement. They also use some innovative methods to help them assess variables that are often overlooked in other longitudinal inquiries, the most distinctive of which is the experience sampling method. The authors focus on a relatively narrow span of time, namely that limited by attendance in a four-year high school. They do a commendable job of exploiting to the maximum their distinctive approach in this longitudinal study. Despite the reviewer’s minor reservations, he still believes that this is the most significant study of talent development to appear since Bloom’s (1985).

149. Simonton, D. K. (1995j). Personality and intellectual predictors of leadership. In D. H. Saklofske & M. Zeidner (Eds.), International handbook of personality and intelligence (pp. 739-757). New York: Plenum.
What are [the] crucial personal assets [that individuals in leadership positions possess]? Can we psychologists devise reliable and valid measures of the needed attributes? Can we successfully predict who will do best in such positions of power and influence? Presents a historical overview of the key methods and findings [from the chapter].

150. Simonton, D. K. (1995k). [Review of the book Telling the truth about history, J. Appleby, L. Hunt, & M. Jacob]. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, 37, 220-221.

151. Simonton, D. K. (1995l). Spread-eagle over the disciplinary chasm. Psychological Inquiry, 6, 135-141.
Responds to 7 commentaries on the behavioral generalizations in the history of psychology target article by Simonton (1995). Comments by Danziger and Furumoto are viewed as critiques by Simonton, those by Evans and Robinson are viewed as receptive, and those by Feist and Gholson are viewed as appreciative. The Wertheimer and Wertheimer comment is seen as integrative by Simonton. Danziger and Furumoto appear to share certain concerns on the focus of the article, while Evans and Robinson raise more issues for consideration. Feist and Gholson elaborate, extend, and exemplify the article’s argument. Wertheimer and Wertheimer advance substantive hypotheses on the scientific analysis of nomothetic propositions.

152. Simonton, D. K. (1996a). Achievement. In J. E. Birren (Ed.), Encyclopedia of gerontology (pp. 27-36). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

153. Simonton, D. K. (1996b). Creative expertise: A life-span developmental perspective. In K. A. Ericsson (Ed.), The road to expert performance: Empirical evidence from the arts and sciences, sports, and games (pp. 227-253). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Traces the development of [creative] expertise across the entire individual life span, from birth to death and everything between / furthermore [the author introduces] a theoretical (and sometimes even mathematical) model that aspires to explain the main features of this life-span development / develops a formal framework for understanding the emergence and manifestation of creative expertise across a creator’s life span / the framework begins by hypothesizing a longitudinal model of creative productivity, and then defines the role of individual-difference variables / [proposes] a mathematical model that predicts how the output rate of creative products varies during the course of a career age and creative productivity [From the chapter].

154. Simonton, D. K. (1996c). Creativity. In J. E. Birren (Ed.), Encyclopedia of gerontology (pp. 341-351). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

155. Simonton, D. K. (1996d). Individual genius within cultural configurations: The case of Japanese civilization. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 27, 354-375.
A classic controversy in the study of outstanding achievement concerns the importance of the cultural milieu in the emergence of genius. The current inquiry addresses this debate by investigating the correlation between an individual’s historical eminence and his or her location within a cultural growth pattern or “configuration.” In particular, the posthumous reputation of 611 Japanese creators and leaders was examined with respect to the shape of the configuration defined by 1,631 lesser figures active in the same domains of activity. The local configuration was classified as a peak, trough, an ascent, or a descent using both domain-specific and system-wide definitions. Findings indicate that the most eminent Ss were more likely to emerge during system-wide ascents and were less likely to appear during domain-specific descents.

156. Simonton, D. K. (1996e). Minding creativity [Review of the book The creative cognition approach, by S. M. Smith, T. B. Ward, & R. A. Finke, (Eds.)]. Contemporary Psychology, 41, 1015-1016.
The editors of this collection of essays are all affiliated with the same university, where they have founded the Creative Cognition Research Group. All three have joined in a single mission. They wish to establish creativity as a legitimate and important topic in cognitive science. At the same time, they aspire to establish their “creative cognition” approach as a central enterprise in contemporary research on creativity. The way the editors envision this research strategy, both cognitive science and creativity research have much to gain by a fusion of investigative activity. On the one hand, our understanding of creative processes may be greatly enhanced by taking full advantage of the techniques and concepts of mainstream cognitive science. On the other hand, the editors also believe that researchers can learn a great deal more about cognitive processes by investigating them within the context of creativity. According to the reviewer, to demonstrate the utility of the advocated approach, the three editors have gathered an impressively diverse collection of essays. He indicates that he knows of no collaborative triad that is comparable to this Texas threesome.

157. Simonton, D. K. (1996f). Musical creativity across time: Period, age, and compositional changes. International Journal of Psychology, 31, 110. [Abstract]
A characteristic feature of musical creativity is that compositional styles tend to change over time. This generalization holds for almost every type of music, whether jazz, rock, or pop. Stylistic changes are especially pronounced in classical music, as is evident by comparising compositions by composers widely dispersed in historical time (e.g., Josquin des Press, Monteverdi, J. S. Bach, Mozart, Chopin, Wagner, Schoenberg, and Philip Glass). Moreover, these stylistic changes can often be observed within the careers of individual composers (e.g., Beethoven’s three compositional periods). Computerized content analyses of music in the classical repertoire have indicated how these stylistic changes occur.

158. Simonton, D. K. (1996g). Presidents’ wives and First Ladies: On achieving eminence within a traditional gender role. Sex Roles, 35, 309-336.
Women sometimes attain distinction through their relationships with highly successful men. This association may entail some combination of several individual and dyadic processes. Possible processes were explored in the lives of 48 wives and First Ladies associated with 39 U.S. Presidents. Three primary dimensions of the women’s performance were used to determine the connection between their eminence and that of the President. Although a reflected-glory effect was apparent in the unreciprocated influence of the President’s reputation on his First Lady’s reputation, the woman’s reputation was independently determined by (a) her performance as the President’s political colleague and (b) her success at establishing her own distinct personality. On the other hand, her reputation was not influenced by her expertise in fulfilling more traditional gender role responsibilities. Some biographical antecedents of the women’s performance were also identified.

159. Simonton, D. K. (1996h). The psychology of famous personalities: Historiometric methods. International Journal of Psychology, 31, 455. [Abstract]
Most empirical studies in psychology are conducted on subjects who are both contemporary and anonymous, such as college students or clinical populations. However, many substantive issues of considerable interest and importance can best be answered by examining subjects who are both deceased and illustrious, such as notable leaders or creators. The distinctive advantages of using these subject pools are especially prominent in the subdisciplines of personality, developmental, and social psychology. Yet these particular subjects cannot be studied by mainstream methods. Instead, data must be obtained using historiometric techniques that permit the analysis of historical, biographical, and content analytical data.

160. Simonton, D. K. (1996i). [Review of the book Genius: The natural history of creativity, H. Eysenck]. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 34, 395.

161. Mumford, M. D., & Simonton, D. K. (1997). Creativity in the workplace: People, problems, and structures. Journal of Creative Behavior, 31, 1-6.
In a dynamic global economy, creativity and innovation are essential requirements for organizational success. Creativity, unfortunately, has not always been seen as playing an important role in the design and structure of organizations. In this article, we argue that creativity and innovation are key requirements for the growth and adaptation of organizations. Subsequently, we review a series of articles, appearing in this issue, about how we might encourage creativity and innovation in the workplace. Some potentially useful directions for future research are discussed along with the methodological issues likely to arise as we seek to understand creativity in the workplace.

162. Simonton, D. K. (1997a). Achievement domain and life expectancies in Japanese civilization. International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 44, 103-114.
Previous studies have found that the expected life span of eminent personalities may vary systematically according to the domain of achievement. The current investigation examines this phenomenon more closely by 1) introducing methodological controls for potential gender and cohort artifacts, 2) adding substantive predictors (e.g., suicide and homicide) that provide clues regarding the substantive basis for the differences, 3) scrutinizing a greater variety of achievement domains in both creativity and leadership, and 4) using a non-Western sample of historical figures (1,632 Japanese born between 450 and 1883 A.D.). Multiple regression analyses revealed domain contrasts in life expectancy (e.g., the shorter life spans of fiction authors and political figures, but the longer life spans of religious leaders and sword makers). In addition, the analyses helped decipher the extent to which these domain differences were due to violent death or to the stress of occupying high positions of power.

163. Simonton, D. K. (1997b). Cognition, creativity, genius, and truth in advertising [Review of the book Creativity and the mind: Discovering the genius within, T. B. Ward, R. A. Finke, & S. M. Smith]. Contemporary Psychology, 42, 902-904.
The reviewer states that he is using this book as a springboard for indicating a gigantic zone of ignorance in the research on how to make people more creative. Some books on creative powers, like this one, are produced by competent academics, and thus are rooted in scientific research. Other self-help offerings came from the pens of writers with less solid credentials – pop psychologists rather than behavioral scientists. What is patently missing from all these books is a series of well-controlled experiments in which participants are randomly assigned books to read and afterward tested for improvements in their creativity skills.

164. Simonton, D. K. (1997c). Creative productivity: A predictive and explanatory model of career trajectories and landmarks. Psychological Review, 104, 66-89.
The author developed a model that explains and predicts both longitudinal and cross-sectional variation in the output of major and minor creative products. The model first yields a mathematical equation that accounts for the empirical age curves, including contrasts across creative domains in the expected career trajectories. The model is then extended to account for individual differences in career trajectories, such as the longitudinal stability of cross-sectional variation and the differential placement of career landmarks (the ages at first, best, and last contribution). The theory is parsimonious in that it requires only two individual-difference parameters (initial creative potential and age at career onset) and two information-processing parameters (ideation and elaboration rates), plus a single principle (the equal-odds rule), to derive several precise predictions that cannot be generated by any alternative theory.

165. Simonton, D. K. (1997d). Creativity in personality, developmental, and social psychology: Links with cognitive psychology? In T. B. Ward, S. M. Smith & J. Vaid (Eds.), Creative thought: An investigation of conceptual structures and processes (pp.309-324). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
Comments on the previous chapters in this volume by Cacciari et al.,  Markman et al. , Chi et al., Murphy, and Barsalou et al., cognitive psychologists who study creativity are fascinated with mental processes and operations that produce creative ideas / personality, developmental, and social psychologists, in contrast, tend to examine creativity from wider or more inclusive perspectives / it is from these 3 distinct orientations that the author directs his examination [from the chapter].

166. Simonton, D. K. (1997e). Evolution, personality, and history [Review of the book Born to rebel: Birth order, family dynamics, and creative lives, F. Sulloway]. American Journal of Psychology110, 457-461.

167. Simonton, D. K. (1997f). Foreign influence and national achievement: The impact of open milieus on Japanese civilization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 72, 86-94.
Input from alien cultures might stimulate exceptional national achievements. This hypothesis was tested by applying generational time-series analysis to a society whose history shows tremendous variation in its receptiveness to the external world (viz., Japan between 580 and 1939). After required controls and data transformations were introduced, the cross-correlations were examined between 3 measures of extracultural influx (outside influence, travel abroad, and eminent immigrants) and 14 measures of national achievement (politics, war, business, religion, medicine, philosophy, nonfiction, fiction, poetry, drama, painting, sculpture, ceramics, and swords). For most domains of creative achievement, the number of eminent individuals at generation g was a positive function of the amount of foreign influence at generation g – 2. For many leadership domains, in contrast, activity at generation g tended to be positively associated with national openness to alien influences at g + 1.

168. Simonton, D. K. (1997g). Genius and creativity: Selected papers. Greenwich, CT: Ablex.
This book is a collection of papers on creativity and eminence. Building on the work of such experts as Galton, Terman, and Cox the author examines achievement in a variety of cultural settings and in response to major historical events, such as wars. By doing this he has brought together comprehensively and systematically many of the powerful historical, personal, and cultural influences determining significant real-world creativity and its influences. In doing so the author attempts to develop an empirically based theory of creative eminence [from the preface].

169. Simonton, D. K. (1997h). Giftedness, talent, and genius: How the same? How different? In J. A. Leroux (Ed.), Selected proceedings from the 12th World Conference of the World Council for Gifted and Talented Children, Inc., 12, 189-214.

170. Simonton, D. K. (1997i). Historiometric studies of creative genius. In M. Runco (Ed.), Handbook of creativity research (Vol. 1, pp. 3-28). Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

171. Simonton, D. K. (1997j). Imagery, style, and content in 37 Shakespeare plays. Empirical Studies of the Arts, 15, 15-20.
Using the Regressive Imagery Dictionary (RID), Derks [1] assessed the thirty-seven plays of Shakespeare on three content analytical variables: primordial content, conceptual content, and incongruous juxtapositions. In the current study, these three RID measures were shown to correlate with style and content attributes not examined in the earlier article. For example, primordial content was found to be positively associated with the proportion of lines in rhymed verse and negatively associated with the proportion of lines in prose. Moreover, although this study replicated some of Derks’ findings with respect to incongruous juxtapositions, it also discovered a negative relation this variable and the play’s level of thematic richness. It is possible that some of these results are not idiosyncratic to Shakespearem but rather may characterize literary creativity in general.

172. Simonton, D. K. (1997k). Products, persons, and periods: Historiometric analyses of compositional creativity. In D. Hargreaves & A. North (Eds.), The social psychology of music (pp. 107-122). New York: Oxford University Press.
Reviews what has become known as the historiometric approach to music, drawing extensively on his own pioneering research in the field on the relationship between broader sociocultural variables (e.g., warfare) and musical taste and creativity [from the book]. There are multiple ways psychologists might go about extracting good behavioural science from the available material / discuss the historiometry method, a scientific discipline in which nomothetic hypotheses about human behaviour are tested by applying quantitative analyses to data concerning historical individuals’ / review some of the major historiometric findings concerning the product, person, and period aspects of music compositional creativity [from the chapter].

173. Simonton, D. K. (1997l). When giftedness becomes genius: How does talent achieve eminence? In N. Colangelo & G. A. Davis (Eds.), Handbook of gifted education (2nd ed., pp. 335-349). Boston: Allyn & Bacon.

174. Simonton, D. K. (1998a). Achieved eminence in minority and majority cultures: Convergence versus divergence in the assessments of 294 African Americans. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 804-817.
Although psychologists have often used eminence measures as individual-difference variables, no researcher has investigated the differential eminence of individuals belonging to disadvantaged minority groups. Here a sample of 294 illustrious African Americans is scrutinized from the standpoint of the majority (White) culture and the minority (Black) subculture. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of 7 Black and 10 White eminence measures indicate that (a) these measures can be explained by two latent variables but that (b) the two dimensions correlate very highly. Multiple regression analyses then showed that the Black and White composite assessments, although concurring on the impact of most predictor variables (e.g., gender, famous firsts, and Spingarn Award), could nonetheless disagree on the consequences of achievements in certain domains (e.g., athletes, blues and jazz musicians, and civil rights activists). The results have implications for the development of causal models that explain individual differences in achievement within minority- and majority-culture populations.

175. Simonton, D. K. (1998b). Donald Campbell’s model of the creative process: Creativity as blind variation and selective retention. Journal of Creative Behavior, 32, 153-158.
This special issue honors Donald Campbell, who died on May 6, 1996. Although Campbell became best known for his methodological contributions, he also published a classic 1960 paper in which he developed a blind-variation and selective-retention model of the creative process. Not only does this Darwinian model accurately describe Campbell’s own creative modus operandi, but in addition it may provide the basis for a comprehensive theory of creativity. The articles collected for this special issue are devoted to evaluating Campbell’s theoretical proposal from the hindsight of nearly 40 years of research and thinking on the creative process.

176. Simonton, D. K. (1998c). Career paths and creative lives: A theoretical perspective on late life potential. In C. Adams-Price (Ed.), Creativity and successful aging: Theoretical and empirical approaches (pp. 3-18). New York: Springer.

177. Simonton, D. K. (1998d). Creativity and genius. In H. S. Friedman (Ed.), Encyclopedia of mental health (Vol. 1, pp. 607-617). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

178. Simonton, D. K. (1998e). Creativity, genius, and talent development. Roeper Review: A Journal on Gifted Education, 21, 86-87.
In this letter, the author describes his historiometric studies of eminent personalities, with particular focus on creative geniuses in the arts and sciences. He highlights some of the more prominent issues that need to be fathomed more fully in future research. Specifically, he considers 7 questions.

179. Simonton, D. K. (1998f). Defining and finding talent: Data and a multiplicative model? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 21, 424-425.
The Simonton (1991) study of 120 classical composers may provide evidence for the existence of innate talent. A weighted multiplicative model of talent development provides a basis for evaluating the adequacy of Howe et al.’s conclusions.

180. Simonton, D. K. (1998g). Fickle fashion versus immortal fame: Transhistorical assessments of creative products in the opera house. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 198-210.
Although the output of creative products provides a valid measure of individual differences in creativity, this criterion assumes that judgments of a product’s creativity have long-term stability. This assumption was tested with a sample of 496 operas by 55 composers whose work spanned 332 years (1607-1938). In addition to examining the functional relation between initial reception and current acclaim, the investigation determined whether the interperiod consensus exhibited transhistorical stability, exponential decay, gradual attrition, or fashion cycles. Reception by contemporaries was assessed by 2 measures, whereas current status was gauged by 7 alternative assessments. Current aesthetic success was consistently found to vary as a positive monotonic function of initial reception, but the relationship changed over time in a cyclical manner. The results have important implications for the study of creativity in both historical and modern populations.

181. Simonton, D. K. (1998h). Gifted child – genius adult: Three life-span developmental perspectives. In R. C. Friedman & K. R. Rogers (Ed.), Talent in context: Historical and social perspectives (pp. 151-175). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
This chapter explores Shakespeare’s observation (1601) that “Some men are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them.” Organized around these 3 central perspectives, this chapter explores the developmental process: the biological perspective – why some are born great; the sociological perspective – why some have greatness thrust upon them; and the psychological perspective – why some achieve greatness [from the chapter].

182. Simonton, D. K. (1998i). Historiometric methods in social psychology. European Review of Social Psychology, 9, 267-293.
Historiometry is a correlational methodology that applies quantitative analyses to archival data concerning historic individuals and events, with the goal of testing nomothetic hypotheses about human behavior. Although not as common as laboratory experiments, this approach was first used in social psychological research about a century ago. Since then, historiometric studies have made important cotnributions to the scientific understanding of human social behavior. These contributions have touched upon such core issues as attitudes and beliefs, aggression and violence, group dynamics, and leadership. Although the technique must often admit certain disadvantages, historiometry also enjoys some distinct advantages.

183. Simonton, D. K. (1998j). Historiometry and a historic life. Journal of Personality, 66, 487-493.
Responds to comments by Read and Nasby (1998) and Velicer and Plummer (1998) on the present author’s article regarding the nature and impact of personal and political stress on the mental and physical health of King George III of Great Britain. Simonton focuses on 3 issues: George’s personality, moving-average models, and methodological hindsight. Simonton argues that George’s pathology requires a more complete examination of his entire personality, although that empirical association for a bona fide explanatory account must be extended. He discusses 2 directions research may take. Namely, utilizing techniques using biological data to provide personalty profiles for imminent leaders, and using methods to scrutinize the dynamics of the king’s character over the course of his adult life. Simonton argues that he was not interested in the stochastic models themselves, but used these models as tools to prewhiten the data, and that it may be necessary to arrive at 4 sets of explanatory accounts (political stress, personal stress, physical illness, and mental illness). He contends that even if these modes are currently identified, that does not demand that there exits a theoretical implication.

184. Simonton, D. K. (1998k). Mad King George: The impact of personal and political stress on mental and physical health. Journal of Personality, 66, 443-466.
Both historians and psychiatrists have tried to explain the recurrent attacks of mental and physical illness experienced by King George III of Great Britain. Although the porphyria hypothesis is widely accepted, this diagnosis assumes that the king’s breakdowns were not precipitated by extreme stress. This assumption was tested using single-case historiometric methods. Biographical data were compiled to form, two extensive chronologies of the monarch’s life, one for stressful events and the other for pathological symptoms. From this information 22 independent judges reliably assessed fluctuations in stress (total, personal, and political) and health (total, physical, and mental) across 624 consecutive months between 1760 and 1811. The cross-correlations were then calculated for the raw, first-differenced, and prewhitened time series. A consistent tendency appeared for the king’s health to deteriorate after increases in stress, most frequently with a 9-mo delay. The current study demonstrates the utility of applying quantitative techniques to a psychobiographical debate hitherto examined solely by qualitative approaches.

185. Simonton, D. K. (1998l). Masterpieces in music and literature: Historiometric inquiries [Arnheim Award Address]. Creativity Research Journal, 11, 103-110.
Having taken a class from Rudolf Arnheim during my graduate student days at Harvard University, I can take this experience as the point of departure for describing a research program that departs appreciably from that of my former teacher. Rather than the single-case, qualitative, and interpretative approach favored by Arnheim, I argue for a multiple-case, quantitative, and hypothesis-testing approach – the historiometric analysis of artistic products. The advantages of such historiometric analyses are illustrated by reviewing key findings in three separate domains: Western classical music, dramatic and poetic literature, and opera. I also discuss whether or not these same techniques can be usefully applied to the visual arts, the domain that most interested Arnheim.

186. Simonton, D. K. (1998m). Political leadership across the life span: Chronological versus career age in the British monarchy. Leadership Quarterly, 9, 309-320.
Although there exists extensive empirical literature on the relationship between age and outstanding achievement, very few investigations have examined the impact of age on the performance of political leaders. Taking advantage of certain methodological assets, the current study examined the British monarchs who governed between 1066 and 1811. After dividing this period into 110 5-year periods, the leadership performance was assessed on 17 criteria. Using a multivariate multiple regression analysis, these criteria were regressed on both chronological age and career age (using both linear and quadratic terms), along with five control variables. Although nine performance criteria exhibited no developmental changes, five were a curvilinear function of career age, two were a curvilinear function of chronological age, and one was a curvilinear function of both chronological and career age. The findings suggest that leader performance is determined by several processes that bear distinct relationships with life-span changes.

187. Simonton, D. K. (1998n). Political leadership: The 1996 presidential election. Leadership Quarterly, 9, 333-334.

188. Simonton, D. K. (1998o). Political leadership: World heads of state. Leadership Quarterly, 9, 239-242.

189. Simonton, D. K. (1998p). [Review of the book World Military leaders: A collective and comparative analysis, M. Rejai & K. Phillips.] Political Psychology, 19, 249-251.

190. Simonton, D. K., Taylor, K., & Cassandro, V. (1998). The creative genius of William Shakespeare: Historiometric analyses of his plays and sonnets. In A. Steptoe (Ed.), Genius and the mind: Studies of creativity and temperament in the historical record (pp. 167-192). New York: Oxford University Press.
In a series of historiometric inquiries conducted over the past dozen years, Shakespeare’s life work has been the subject of quantitative and nomothetic scrutiny. We summarize those findings that contribute to our comprehension of literary creativity and aesthetics. The review falls into 2 parts. First we examine studies that focused on Shakespeare’s dramatic output, and then we look at the studies that concentrated on his poetic outpu [from the chapter].

191. Simonton, D. K. (1999a). Certainly not creative, but definitely depressing [Review of the book Manic depression and creativity, D. J. Hershman & J. Lieb]. Contemporary Psychology, 44, 489-491.
The core of the volume consists of four case studies of Newton, Beethoven, Dickens, and Van Gogh (Chapters 3-6). These studies examine the lives and careers of assuredly creative but allegedly manic depressive individuals. The four case studies are then followed by a chapter titled “Diminishing Creativity,” another titled “Augmenting Genius,” concluded by an Epilogue by Lieb. Terminating the volume is a bibliography, but absolutely no index is provided. The book was obviously replete with all sorts of interesting quotations and anecdotes. Nevertheless, genuine citations to the literature published in professional journals were all but absent. This was clearly a volume with a more humanistic than scientific thrust. According to the reviewer, this is a reprint of an earlier book, “The Key to Genius.” The two books are equally well written-precisely so for Chapters 1 through 6! And the four case studies remain chock full of fun facts, curious observations, and striking stories. For all those who expect to learn anything up to date about the fascinating linkage between creativity and manic depression, this is definitely not the book for them.

192. Simonton, D. K. (1999b). Changing of the guard. Journal of Creative Behavior, 33, ii.

193. Simonton, D. K. (1999c). The continued evolution of creative Darwinism. Psychological Inquiry, 10, 362-367.
Responds to comments made by Ericsson, Feist, Gardner, Martindale, Montell, Mumford, Perkins, Schooler and Dougal, Sternberg, and Russ on the article by Simonton (2000) that argued that creativity can be accounted for by a general process of blind variation and selective retention, which is traced back to a Darwinian account of biological evolution. The current author addresses the issues of expertise, randomness, religion, and evolution.

194. Simonton, D. K. (1999d). The creative society: Genius vis-á-vis zeitgeist. In A. Montuori & R. Purser (Eds.), Social creativity (Vol. 1, pp. 265-286). Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press.

195. Simonton, D. K. (1999e). Creativity and genius. In L. A. Pervin & O. John (Eds.), Handbook of personality theory and research (2nd ed., pp. 629-652). New York: Guilford.
Provides an overview of the substantive findings and issues regarding individual differences in creativity and genius, with a special emphasis on the two combined. A psychometric and historiometric definition of genius is provided. Everyday and exceptional achievements, childhood vs adulthood creativity, cognitive vs dispositional attributes, scientific vs artistic creativity, nature vs nurture in creative development, individual vs situational determinants of creativity and empirical vs theoretical personality profiles are differentiated.

196. Simonton, D. K. (1999f). Creativity as blind variation and selective retention: Is the creative process Darwinian? Psychological Inquiry, 10, 309-328.
Darwinism provides not only a theory of biological evolution but also supplies a more genetic process applicable to many phenomena in the behavioral sciences. Among these applications is the blind-variation and selective-retention model of creativity proposed by Campbell (1960). It is argued that research over the past 4 decades lends even more support to Campbell’s model. This support is indicated by reviewing the experimental, psychometric, and historiometric literature on creativity. Then 4 major objections to the Darwinian model are examined (sociocultural determinism, individual volition, human rationality, and domain expertise). The article concludes by speculating whether the Darwinian model may actually subsume all alternative theories of creativity as special cases of the larger framework.

197. Simonton, D. K. (1999g). Creativity from a historiometric perspective. In R. J. Sternberg (Ed.), Handbook of creativity (pp. 116-133). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
What is creativity? How can creativity be measured? What factors predict the appearance or demonstration of creativity? How can the psychologist even begin to tackle these questions? One methodological approach is called historiometry and constitutes the subject of the current chapter. After first defining exactly what this method entails, I provide a brief history of its historical development, and then outline some of the central topics addressed by this distinctive type of research. Stated most formally, historiometry is that “scientific discipline in which nomothetic hypotheses about human behavior are tested by applying quantitative analyses to data concerning historical individuals” [from the chapter].

198. Simonton, D. K. (1999h). A creator’s creative overview of creativity [Review of the book Understanding those who create, J. Piirto]. Contemporary Psychology, 44, 394-395.
This article reviews the book “Understanding Those Who Create (2nd ed.)” by Jane Piirto (1998). The reviewer also examines specific chapters of the text and concludes with a review of positive features of the book.

199. Simonton, D. K. (1999i). Eminence. In M. A. Runco & S. Pritzker (Eds.), Encyclopedia of creativity (Vol. 1, pp. 647-657). San Diego: Academic Press.

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